Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f411a0ff38e63ad073d6d571641856a10c21cc8e8644be719e9fb4358a13466
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 24c | 1,881$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.67 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be3…27a5backed Yes | 5c | 354.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.18 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 352.92$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.61 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 349.66$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 9c | 297.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.03 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked Yes | 77c | 257.33$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 22c | 224.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.44 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 76c | 215.86$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 32c | 210.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a7…19a3backed Yes | 5c | 209.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +185.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…af52backed Yes | 61c | 149.33$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 10c | 124.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.05 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 9c | 123.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.11 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 123.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 61c | 110.61$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…7bc3backed Yes | 10c | 101.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.01 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 54c | 98.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 28c | 97.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 73c | 77.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 47c | 76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 68.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 53c | 64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 61.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 56c | 60.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked Yes | 68c | 58.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 46c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 30c | 43.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 76c | 42.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…f975backed Yes | 73c | 41.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 68c | 40.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 68c | 37.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 72c | 27.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 79c | 26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 51c | 25.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x130f…6e99backed Yes | 80c | 25.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 79c | 23.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 21.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 79c | 19.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 79c | 19.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…e087backed Yes | 72c | 17.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 22°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 23°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C or higher on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.