Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C or higher on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d39b377db6c9c12fbfdf7395907b35de7eff147c5f3f2bcd7662bad34b4a5dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 41c | 876.85$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.41 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 23c | 457.58$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.05 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 9c | 438.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 18c | 389.75$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 13c | 375.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 6c | 303.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 277.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 18c | 211.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 209.09$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 41c | 182.48$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 10c | 165.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…60fcbacked Yes | 21c | 163.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 68c | 129.88$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed Yes | 72c | 110$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 108.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 94.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa223…0894backed No | 52c | 75.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 14c | 73.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 32c | 63.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 29c | 58.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 68c | 56.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88cd…3632backed No | 44c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed No | 78c | 50.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 33c | 42.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 37.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 30.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked No | 76c | 25.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…6ca1backed Yes | 59c | 25.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…8046backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 46 | 84.8%39 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 76c | 21.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddb…81eabacked Yes | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C or higher on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 22°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 23°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.