Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f1fe916de23566d139315893dd4e1b7d7afcec7df83a12c326ff1b8cf3546df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 39c | 1,323$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.79 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 29c | 761.63$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.9 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ac…e6ebbacked Yes | 2c | 754.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 200.63$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 20c | 196.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 196.1$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 94.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 22c | 90.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82e0…bcfdbacked Yes | 38c | 85.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 84.13$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…2436backed Yes | 18c | 84.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 71c | 81.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 67c | 78.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 72c | 77.19$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 20c | 72.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 68.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 73c | 65.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 77c | 64.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 59c | 64.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 64.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 78c | 63.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 23c | 59.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 28c | 55.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 23c | 53.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 20c | 51.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 70c | 51.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67c1…8205backed Yes | 25c | 51.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 29c | 48.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…7bc3backed Yes | 26c | 48.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 73c | 47.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 31c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 39.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 75c | 34.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 32.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 66c | 30.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 78c | 29.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 79c | 24.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 23.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 74c | 20.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 61c | 18.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 79c | 18.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 69c | 17.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 17.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 77c | 16.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7825…d8e9backed No | 78c | 16.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 79c | 15.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 78c | 15.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 74c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 79c | 13.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 22°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 23°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C or higher on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.