Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca0adc68a40ac1c7d9a91cec17556e1346d5eb0deb5c9effb525947fd0b526de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 48c | 1,106$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.67 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 40c | 549.17$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.9 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 489$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 299.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…20febacked Yes | 40c | 227.82$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 58c | 199.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 13c | 199.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 195.97$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 44c | 195.5$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 40c | 129.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 122.32$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 120.69$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 62c | 114.48$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 63c | 114.47$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 109.6$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 14c | 108.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 103.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 30c | 83.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f16…063dbacked No | 63c | 78.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 68.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 56.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 54c | 54.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 59c | 50.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 27c | 49.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 64c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 32c | 42.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 38.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 74c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 40c | 34.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 61c | 34.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 62c | 33.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 31.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 64c | 29.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 28.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…9e38backed Yes | 42c | 28.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 49c | 24.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 45c | 23.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 64c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 70c | 22.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 57c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 67c | 20.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 67c | 17.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 22°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 23°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C or higher on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.