Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84d4779300c364f32e2dfff33d876db99f3a3b9a301ac50d2028c547fe6b8e36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 19c | 448.36$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 211.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ae…00c1backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 19c | 199.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 80c | 158.2$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 157.6$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 19c | 150.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 136.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 15c | 131.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 17c | 124.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47c…2761backed Yes | 34c | 121.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 28c | 106.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 28c | 101.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 29c | 85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 80.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 75.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 74c | 72.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 67.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 78c | 61.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…612fbacked No | 74c | 60.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 21c | 50.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 62c | 49.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 24c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…af52backed Yes | 29c | 44.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 71c | 41.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…7f0fbacked Yes | 30c | 40.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 37.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…9e38backed No | 73c | 33.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 68c | 33.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab3…c4a1backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 67c | 23.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec4…ce94backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 74c | 19.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 71c | 18.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 73c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 69c | 16.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 78c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 75c | 13.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaf…9ce1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.