TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,451
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,634

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,451 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7735…4740backed Yes54c609.99$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.3525933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No58c475.38$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.088,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes41c303.06$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.5345238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes54c288.17$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.465043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb541…169dbacked No50c231.08$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.254365.1%28 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes39c218.47$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No43c144.19$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.7364021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c127.98$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.882,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69ae…00c1backed Yes52c125.63$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick28cpaid+20.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes41c117.1$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6137835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a2…c0c5backed Yes73c108.95$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804463.6%28 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x029a…60fcbacked No67c108.88$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.882055%11 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed Yes41c101.9$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4828142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefc2…9762backed No54c101.73$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.97850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes68c101.59$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6714752.4%77 W · 70 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+15.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb29…0171backed Yes50c101.11$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.545343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cd6…092abacked No34c98.02$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7724736%89 W · 158 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8f6…85e9backed No59c85.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.28067.5%54 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No46c74.66$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.564,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed7b…7b92backed No60c73.85$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.544065%26 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No53c73.65$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.963,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba96…95a7backed Yes42c71.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3024029.2%70 W · 170 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No44c71$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.515,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes17c69.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.175,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No50c64.59$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5635854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No59c63.31$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9839951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No50c62.74$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.342,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes45c61.86$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.657,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No59c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5799571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes48c55.27$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.551,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No60c53.09$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.452,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes43c51.44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2325449.2%125 W · 129 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No53c50.64$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9441258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No48c50.2$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.19,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.578663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes40c49.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2656…a5b8backed Yes43c47.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.427524%18 W · 57 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No68c45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2495852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8c81…25cabacked Yes54c43$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1312233.6%41 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes47c42.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73dd…1f06backed Yes45c42.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.249639.6%38 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7740…a03cbacked Yes40c42.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.967425.7%19 W · 55 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes42c41.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5418837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb19f…7f0fbacked Yes45c41.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.543644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No53c40.4$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0838758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa05…9907backed No63c38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.136567.7%44 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes49c37.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5447136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb060…9572backed Yes47c36.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179750.5%49 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ead…b7bfbacked No56c35.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.984170.7%29 W · 12 L+7.1wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+46.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa70d…63bebacked No54c35.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.418940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No46c34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.361,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f63…42f2backed Yes50c34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172035%7 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-39.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No60c33.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.473,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No49c33.25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.943859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No49c31.6$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1199963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c30.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.164,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27c5…0d4cbacked No50c30.97$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4612758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No57c30.76$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2350373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde8b…612fbacked No72c30.35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.652982.8%24 W · 5 L+5.8wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+33.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No53c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.974,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.71,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ac1…1a0ebacked Yes43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.93537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.23,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.571031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No48c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.741,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.72,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1580050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No57c28.12$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1635058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No55c26.18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8342762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7546…b17abacked No59c25.49$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.511258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No52c25.42$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.084,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No57c25.19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.922,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes40c25.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0218368.9%126 W · 57 L+25.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No42c25.09$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.541,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.511,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes45c24.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2547538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No61c24.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.651,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No52c24.36$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7239158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1048…e362backed No61c23.49$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.167153.5%38 W · 33 L+9.6wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+62%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x548a…e37abacked No56c21.47$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.456845.6%31 W · 37 L-7.7wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-21.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No48c20.86$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8239159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3b…256ebacked No59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.223362.2%145 W · 88 L+33.5wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+31.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8282562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81ab…5f31backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1028946.4%134 W · 155 L-14.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed No59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.339346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.