China Taiwan · resolved market
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x447a0dd83a26ebe91ea40ffca4f62a8fc3a2230e16f03cd05feb5faad0158a5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x761a…0e8ebacked Yes | 14c | 12,997$1,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,772.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 12,692$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.52 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +286.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af0…b2a8backed Yes | 13c | 3,819$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…3b91backed Yes | 16c | 3,778$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +222.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 3,277$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…b294backed Yes | 9c | 3,020$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 23c | 2,891$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.92 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 13c | 2,161$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa726…4646backed Yes | 23c | 1,774$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb1…ea72backed Yes | 16c | 1,591$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fe…746bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,521$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd0…9f9abacked No | 78c | 1,467$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe5…6f6bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,409$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…6143backed Yes | 20c | 1,193$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.61 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 7c | 1,100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…56a3backed Yes | 14c | 1,100$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe05d…ddfabacked Yes | 2c | 1,083$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 23c | 1,018$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb522…3ebbbacked Yes | 14c | 909.18$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed Yes | 11c | 792.22$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +155.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b6…302fbacked Yes | 22c | 757.61$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 14c | 755.3$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.79 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 727.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 12c | 713.68$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 13c | 600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4e…a985backed Yes | 3c | 583.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 80c | 541$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.61 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x73f9…cb0abacked Yes | 23c | 496.24$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac3…1347backed No | 80c | 494.76$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…76aebacked Yes | 12c | 494.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…6cb4backed Yes | 4c | 407.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 9c | 384.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 11c | 366.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc538…c555backed Yes | 14c | 331.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…42adbacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47d7…df89backed Yes | 12c | 298.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed Yes | 20c | 296.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4da…5fa1backed Yes | 17c | 286.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked No | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked Yes | 13c | 258.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…75a5backed Yes | 4c | 249.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1b…8833backed Yes | 8c | 238.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3f…a267backed Yes | 24c | 234.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x628c…c651backed Yes | 22c | 231.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 18c | 227.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +186.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 21c | 223.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 21c | 203.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x792b…863bbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d9…1eb8backed Yes | 26c | 183.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed Yes | 12c | 179.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…d588backed Yes | 27c | 175.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x883b…327bbacked Yes | 26c | 168.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 74c | 163.69$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 155.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -11.8wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…ce08backed Yes | 14c | 130.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 10c | 127.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -61%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…f500backed No | 75c | 127.26$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 123.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b6…89a5backed No | 77c | 115.15$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22df…ed56backed Yes | 10c | 114.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 26c | 112.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 106.06$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed Yes | 13c | 98.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5736…01a8backed No | 78c | 98.24$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…a69ebacked Yes | 19c | 97.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked Yes | 19c | 97.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked No | 80c | 94.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 14c | 89.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb4…c63bbacked Yes | 12c | 89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c58…0725backed Yes | 26c | 86.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd22…7b17backed Yes | 13c | 85.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…9f18backed Yes | 19c | 81.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1d…7e73backed Yes | 25c | 75.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b6…bba1backed Yes | 15c | 68.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…33f7backed Yes | 21c | 66.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b7…e488backed Yes | 29c | 64.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 25c | 54.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827d…b1f0backed No | 78c | 50.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +149.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fb…b7b5backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae0…f8b3backed Yes | 25c | 48.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bd…e77cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…2d3cbacked No | 79c | 34.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…b531backed No | 79c | 31.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…5f62backed No | 76c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4a…f704backed No | 80c | 24.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf29a…43f1backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes won
- Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.