TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

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Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$130,741
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$117,897

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,741 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x761a…0e8ebacked Yes14c12,997$1,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,772.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+113.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c12,692$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.52474.3%2 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+286.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2af0…b2a8backed Yes13c3,819$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick35cpaid+61.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf745…3b91backed Yes16c3,778$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+222.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c3,277$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.25370%0 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4447…b294backed Yes9c3,020$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes23c2,891$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.922810.7%3 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-79.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes13c2,161$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.9350%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa726…4646backed Yes23c1,774$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+61%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddb1…ea72backed Yes16c1,591$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.171233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-35.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5fe…746bbacked Yes18c1,521$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dd0…9f9abacked No78c1,467$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefe5…6f6bbacked Yes22c1,409$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.2730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e3d…6143backed Yes20c1,193$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.611233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-42.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes7c1,100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.560%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc40…56a3backed Yes14c1,100$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe05d…ddfabacked Yes2c1,083$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes23c1,018$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb522…3ebbbacked Yes14c909.18$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63b0…4cf2backed Yes11c792.22$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+155.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b6…302fbacked Yes22c757.61$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.4540%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked Yes14c755.3$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.791723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+104.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes6c727.25$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.03190%0 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes12c713.68$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.25520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes13c600$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+47.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e4e…a985backed Yes3c583.85$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No80c541$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.611770.6%12 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+39.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x73f9…cb0abacked Yes23c496.24$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac3…1347backed No80c494.76$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x983d…76aebacked Yes12c494.03$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…6cb4backed Yes4c407.17$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes9c384.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.66933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes11c366.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.32524%6 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc538…c555backed Yes14c331.08$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.44728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa794…42adbacked Yes17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5140%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x47d7…df89backed Yes12c298.73$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e34…63f7backed Yes20c296.84$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.34757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4da…5fa1backed Yes17c286.89$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.73475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+112.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb120…f2ffbacked No76c263.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.161145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x687d…e28bbacked Yes13c258.01$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.54666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+47.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc848…75a5backed Yes4c249.65$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.16425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e1b…8833backed Yes8c238.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f3f…a267backed Yes24c234.8$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x628c…c651backed Yes22c231.16$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.77520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-52.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes18c227.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.031729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+186.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes21c223.56$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.95450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes21c203.68$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.774723.4%11 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x792b…863bbacked Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d9…1eb8backed Yes26c183.86$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8168…90e7backed Yes12c179.12$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.331040%4 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-40.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf58c…d588backed Yes27c175.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.07616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-78.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x883b…327bbacked Yes26c168.47$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No74c163.69$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes16c155.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.95211.5%6 W · 46 L-11.8wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-71.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x397e…ce08backed Yes14c130.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes10c127.46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.231225%3 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-61%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7609…f500backed No75c127.26$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes16c123.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.373432.4%11 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4b6…89a5backed No77c115.15$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.83450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22df…ed56backed Yes10c114.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba38…f74dbacked Yes26c112.9$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.35650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+63.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No76c106.06$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.226933.3%23 W · 46 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x235e…5673backed Yes13c98.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8680%0 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5736…01a8backed No78c98.24$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.61250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaba5…a69ebacked Yes19c97.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x520c…c42dbacked Yes19c97.26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.48250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x956c…1c6ebacked No80c94.8$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes14c89.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.850%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefb4…c63bbacked Yes12c89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6c58…0725backed Yes26c86.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd22…7b17backed Yes13c85.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6210…9f18backed Yes19c81.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1d…7e73backed Yes25c75.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8b6…bba1backed Yes15c68.78$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7491…33f7backed Yes21c66.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46b7…e488backed Yes29c64.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.87425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes25c54.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.552718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x827d…b1f0backed No78c50.18$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.042100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+149.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11fb…b7b5backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdae0…f8b3backed Yes25c48.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bd…e77cbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1f7…2d3cbacked No79c34.56$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.26520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-74.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e13…b531backed No79c31.11$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f25…5f62backed No76c25.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce4a…f704backed No80c24.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.92366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick79cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf29a…43f1backed No80c16$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.