China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21e0909fb0efa38f1550a786472d1165f24afb9b0ddff14d01daca161d6ddd1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 28c | 9,047$2,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,515.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 8,394$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.16 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +286.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…c327backed No | 12c | 6,821$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,015.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +323.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 15c | 3,038$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,574.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 72c | 2,121$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,532.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed No | 20c | 2,113$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,699.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +155.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes | 65c | 1,575$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…65abbacked Yes | 4c | 1,259$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 1,227$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.15 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 70c | 1,198$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed No | 8c | 1,189$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.62 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x675f…a63bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,097$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 30c | 1,096$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb1…ea72backed Yes | 72c | 1,071$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…3b91backed No | 16c | 1,032$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +222.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7af1…5a2dbacked No | 19c | 993.06$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…6143backed Yes | 72c | 991.77$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed Yes | 27c | 905$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28eb…f1e1backed Yes | 73c | 804.1$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44e9…5a24backed No | 6c | 774.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +756.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 754.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 80c | 707.35$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.26 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -7.5wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4e93…4325backed Yes | 74c | 646.5$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1d…6160backed No | 30c | 629.1$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 14c | 618.94$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.58 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 9c | 616.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8841…94d8backed Yes | 69c | 612.88$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c1…f6bebacked Yes | 7c | 607.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…494dbacked Yes | 68c | 598.6$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 3c | 505$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.85 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…56a3backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 9c | 498.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.86 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba30…ca1cbacked Yes | 4c | 487.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc6…81aabacked Yes | 65c | 448.72$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes | 72c | 404.98$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af0…b2a8backed No | 29c | 394.34$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 66c | 366.94$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.18 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…1300backed Yes | 73c | 365.22$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 57c | 333.41$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.8 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe180…889bbacked Yes | 75c | 315.07$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 77cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa56c…a440backed No | 6c | 308.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0ef9backed Yes | 76c | 305.67$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 70c | 301.28$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 4c | 300$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 73c | 300$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 18c | 289.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec9…cf38backed Yes | 68c | 286.6$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 278.47$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.4 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…7b52backed Yes | 74c | 271.61$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Yes | 73c | 267.94$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 12c | 256.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 29c | 250.82$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.04 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b95…a426backed Yes | 79c | 249.44$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d81…b7bdbacked Yes | 10c | 241.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fc…4036backed Yes | 70c | 218.8$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c3…e2ddbacked Yes | 71c | 199.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 40c | 192.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.51 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 73c | 187.64$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…237cbacked Yes | 68c | 186.96$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4da…5fa1backed No | 18c | 186.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…2640backed Yes | 72c | 182.37$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffb…409ebacked Yes | 77c | 171.84$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 33c | 168.42$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +186.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x278e…42ecbacked Yes | 77c | 166.73$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 12c | 165.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c61…4ac7backed Yes | 67c | 155.18$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 29c | 150$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e3…6df9backed No | 8c | 149.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,077.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 8c | 146.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.53 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…73b2backed Yes | 67c | 145.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…5462backed Yes | 70c | 141.36$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e64…d6bfbacked Yes | 69c | 140.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b6…89a5backed Yes | 71c | 137.72$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff2…68a2backed Yes | 73c | 134.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3118…ee98backed Yes | 79c | 124.57$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.31 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed7f…582bbacked Yes | 65c | 114.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4de…3920backed No | 24c | 110.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 37c | 102.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa693…f6d7backed No | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4529…d10abacked Yes | 72c | 99.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…4026backed No | 19c | 99.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 80c | 97.91$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 34c | 96.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 64c | 95.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4839…4170backed Yes | 74c | 92.59$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 23c | 89.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…bcc2backed Yes | 72c | 81.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 80.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.22 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 28c | 79.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc8…5709backed No | 25c | 79.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 75.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x861e…8a4fbacked Yes | 76c | 71.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 64c | 68.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +186.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaccf…279ebacked No | 28c | 67.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 30c | 67.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 60c | 67.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d30…a3c7backed Yes | 74c | 66.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?this page
- Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes won
- Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.