TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$128,587
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$124,554

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,587 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes28c9,047$2,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,515.27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+45.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c8,394$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.16474.3%2 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+286.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x307f…c327backed No12c6,821$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,015.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+323.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed No15c3,038$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,574.23520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes72c2,121$1,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.191145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63b0…4cf2backed No20c2,113$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+155.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes65c1,575$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…65abbacked Yes4c1,259$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No5c1,227$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.15568.9%5 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes70c1,198$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.21637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-45.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x370c…3eb1backed No8c1,189$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.621216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x675f…a63bbacked Yes4c1,097$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No30c1,096$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.97850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xddb1…ea72backed Yes72c1,071$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.291233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-35.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf745…3b91backed No16c1,032$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+222.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7af1…5a2dbacked No19c993.06$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+119.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e3d…6143backed Yes72c991.77$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.541233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-42.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4541…30d3backed Yes27c905$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.55520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28eb…f1e1backed Yes73c804.1$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.0530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44e9…5a24backed No6c774.05$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+756.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes6c754.39$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.79540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-36.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes80c707.35$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.263225%8 W · 24 L-7.5wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-65.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x4e93…4325backed Yes74c646.5$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef1d…6160backed No30c629.1$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No14c618.94$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.581323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+54.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd12f…e85abacked Yes9c616.44$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.451822.2%4 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8841…94d8backed Yes69c612.88$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90c1…f6bebacked Yes7c607.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd8d4…494dbacked Yes68c598.6$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No3c505$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.852733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+88.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc40…56a3backed Yes80c500$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No9c498.08$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.861145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+47.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba30…ca1cbacked Yes4c487.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc6…81aabacked Yes65c448.72$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-56.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes72c404.98$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.39650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2af0…b2a8backed No29c394.34$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.23757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick35cpaid+61.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed Yes66c366.94$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.181457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce0e…1300backed Yes73c365.22$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes57c333.41$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.82810.7%3 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-79.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe180…889bbacked Yes75c315.07$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick77cpaid-56.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa56c…a440backed No6c308.27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,566.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e66…0ef9backed Yes76c305.67$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed Yes70c301.28$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.24742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-36.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No4c300$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2881625%4 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+100.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes73c300$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-61.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x02b3…77b6backed No18c289.63$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.9875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+91.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ec9…cf38backed Yes68c286.6$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes48c278.47$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.46933.3%23 W · 46 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57dd…7b52backed Yes74c271.61$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Yes73c267.94$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No12c256.98$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.86933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No29c250.82$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.041457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b95…a426backed Yes79c249.44$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.61633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-36.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d81…b7bdbacked Yes10c241.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16fc…4036backed Yes70c218.8$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9c3…e2ddbacked Yes71c199.99$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No40c192.45$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.514325.6%11 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes73c187.64$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f1f…237cbacked Yes68c186.96$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4da…5fa1backed No18c186.88$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.24475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+112.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f12…2640backed Yes72c182.37$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.02450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbffb…409ebacked Yes77c171.84$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88bb…8d2cbacked No33c168.42$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.983100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+186.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x278e…42ecbacked Yes77c166.73$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Yes12c165.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c61…4ac7backed Yes67c155.18$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No29c150$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.52524%6 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1e3…6df9backed No8c149.72$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1371100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,077.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No8c146.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.53128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14c2…73b2backed Yes67c145.31$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.36633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-51.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0041…5462backed Yes70c141.36$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e64…d6bfbacked Yes69c140.56$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4b6…89a5backed Yes71c137.72$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.67450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ff2…68a2backed Yes73c134.03$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.841020%2 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-61.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3118…ee98backed Yes79c124.57$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.31119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick30cpaid-78%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xed7f…582bbacked Yes65c114.8$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4de…3920backed No24c110.31$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No37c102.29$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.993327.3%9 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-40.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7e34…63f7backed Yes74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa693…f6d7backed No28c99.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4529…d10abacked Yes72c99.81$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9549…4026backed No19c99.38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+165.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes80c97.91$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.245345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed Yes34c96.41$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes64c95.45$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.934723.4%11 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4839…4170backed Yes74c92.59$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b7b…2d1abacked No23c89.98$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.21580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+82.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef62…bcc2backed Yes72c81.23$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No19c80.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.223432.4%11 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes70c80$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid+49.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No28c79.75$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.692433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc8…5709backed No25c79.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+98.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes19c75.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.222524%6 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-58.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x861e…8a4fbacked Yes76c71.48$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes64c68.69$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.771729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+186.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaccf…279ebacked No28c67.9$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No30c67.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.45560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+44.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes60c67.23$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.561471.4%10 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+70.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4d30…a3c7backed Yes74c66.16$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.