China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2fdbeef5e6ef690b0197f13718f9e046b26767a1b0e9c3e0823a88f60719b49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 23c | 9,020$2,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,949.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 14c | 4,564$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 4,053$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,030.06 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +286.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…65abbacked No | 3c | 3,008$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 62c | 1,498$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.75 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfddb…4b77backed No | 2c | 1,460$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3314…a8c7backed No | 19c | 1,067$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e64…d6bfbacked No | 6c | 862.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 7c | 711.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked No | 7c | 703.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c1…f6bebacked No | 7c | 593.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d04…11ffbacked No | 7c | 516.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x675f…a63bbacked No | 5c | 462.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe05d…ddfabacked No | 7c | 460.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 5c | 427.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02d…6eaabacked No | 5c | 380.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b6…89a5backed No | 7c | 201.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…68c5backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked Yes | 66c | 189.29$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5899…4623backed No | 8c | 166.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 35c | 95.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209a…1e37backed No | 26c | 38.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.