China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60cd981dd8ae1ac0fe37265135509dfce4e5d53ec53c22f1742989376b23a7f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 15,181$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.06 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +286.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 4,468$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 2c | 4,115$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…c327backed Yes | 8c | 3,401$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +323.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 1c | 2,378$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 3c | 2,256$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…f896backed Yes | 2c | 2,229$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…65abbacked Yes | 1c | 2,193$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,101$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa85…4d17backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 2c | 1,823$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95a0…dfdfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,628$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,464$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde65…01f5backed Yes | 2c | 1,309$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…56a3backed Yes | 2c | 1,286$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44e9…5a24backed Yes | 3c | 1,199$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +756.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ddd8backed Yes | 3c | 1,122$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa77…0069backed Yes | 4c | 1,033$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x515a…f60cbacked Yes | 5c | 939.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 4c | 902.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 6c | 758.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 16c | 691$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d6…f13dbacked Yes | 3c | 666.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 8c | 640.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Yes | 5c | 633.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…246ebacked Yes | 8c | 603.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4e…a985backed Yes | 7c | 580.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…8a3cbacked Yes | 6c | 537.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 512.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4733…8738backed Yes | 5c | 489.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…5d06backed Yes | 3c | 352.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb1…ea72backed Yes | 16c | 311.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c3…ec62backed Yes | 7c | 268.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0956…cffbbacked Yes | 7c | 259.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd0…0db7backed Yes | 5c | 252.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…73b2backed Yes | 5c | 239.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf8…180dbacked Yes | 5c | 238.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ea…02edbacked Yes | 6c | 237.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc8…1471backed Yes | 6c | 235.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…bcc2backed Yes | 6c | 221.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb523…4b8fbacked Yes | 6c | 207.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…4a56backed Yes | 6c | 194.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e0…3e9abacked Yes | 6c | 184.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b6…bba1backed Yes | 6c | 163.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 11c | 161.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +186.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34e…bb55backed Yes | 16c | 129.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes won
- Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.