World Politics · resolved market
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f21610e58bba3a65e0f76c0446c5769d1f904600ddacee9664d4cf9e5242f20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 10c | 8,189$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.11 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 7c | 5,036$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 25c | 2,725$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.69 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 21c | 2,567$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +18.2wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 39c | 2,200$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.77 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3732…43acbacked No | 70c | 1,604$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa189…a2d5backed Yes | 78c | 1,386$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.63 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 33c | 1,142$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.23 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.39per pick | 50cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 10c | 1,122$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.09 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 17c | 1,046$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.27 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 62c | 986.96$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.42 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 63c | 799.99$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 43c | 617.53$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 25cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 28c | 580$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.26 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 69c | 567.93$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 34c | 415.82$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 23cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…641bbacked No | 10c | 400$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2891…fa1dbacked Yes | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 66c | 319$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.62 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…0172backed No | 14c | 316.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked No | 59c | 308.7$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.39 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed No | 15c | 300$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 64c | 291.19$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.51 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 63c | 286.88$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…a698backed No | 61c | 282.18$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.45 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed No | 65c | 200$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 40c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5backed No | 54c | 199.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f4…dd7cbacked Yes | 41c | 193.02$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.41per pick | 45cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…76d1backed No | 37c | 189.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 53cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 55c | 187.96$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.38 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 38c | 184.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.06 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 61c | 180$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…f147backed Yes | 36c | 172.86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 28cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 58c | 169.11$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 58c | 157$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed No | 56c | 156$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 38c | 138.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…ac16backed No | 24c | 137.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked Yes | 61c | 130.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…c7f2backed Yes | 37c | 124.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a6…8b84backed Yes | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 52c | 111.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b5…d5c6backed Yes | 38c | 108.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 44c | 100.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…b571backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16b…d420backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 56c | 99.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…8cffbacked No | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 67c | 76.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 27c | 74.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 39c | 66.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 49c | 64.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 59.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 39c | 53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…e69bbacked Yes | 37c | 52.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 43c | 51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 50c | 47.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c58…0725backed Yes | 37c | 38.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +173.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 67c | 34.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…0847backed Yes | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 100 | 38%38 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 56c | 30.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked Yes | 67c | 27.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 43c | 27.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x175d…23a0backed Yes | 51c | 22.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…2ba5backed Yes | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdefb…1000backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45fe…4c1abacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.