World Politics · resolved market
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xade4a385b71586e74ca6a427c36729aa48be573b8bc5df1a203ad6a4f295d4b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 15c | 6,782$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 25cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 4c | 4,613$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.04 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 20c | 2,024$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 16c | 1,154$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.98 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 15c | 1,020$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.01 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 79c | 968.96$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.99 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 15c | 687.62$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…e2c4backed Yes | 8c | 593.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 79c | 446.01$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.03 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc88…45d4backed Yes | 21c | 355.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 10c | 260$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 214.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 195.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 190.98$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 19c | 143.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…35fdbacked Yes | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc2…8c9abacked Yes | 17c | 86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d21…7561backed Yes | 16c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked Yes | 14c | 81.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 19c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked Yes | 18c | 58.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 21c | 49.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked No | 54c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54be…91fabacked No | 80c | 15.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.