AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74b45c854e94c3e38d7f8b88f2d56f01dec3c2c4454da002612f99b67bb23143
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06b6…eba6backed No | 72c | 3,585$2,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.83 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 30c | 3,503$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.15 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,474$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 68c | 1,233$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 22c | 1,205$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.48 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 36c | 1,000$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.65 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 23c | 800$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 17c | 800$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 3c | 403.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 11c | 276.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 26c | 269.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 71c | 254.82$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.82 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 223.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.6wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 199$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 63c | 192.14$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 16c | 179.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5backed Yes | 24c | 169.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…ac16backed Yes | 24c | 137.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed1…a782backed Yes | 41c | 91.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 24c | 80.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 42c | 76.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 72.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8d…d34cbacked Yes | 33c | 60.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f7…7bd9backed Yes | 37c | 56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 61cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 37c | 46.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 37c | 45.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…1ad5backed No | 74c | 40.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 30c | 37.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 38c | 37.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…9ea4backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 75cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -10.8wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31?this page
- Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?No won
- Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.