AI · resolved market
ChatGPT Outage by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57b31d4ced2930481c4c4d0aedb7612333651b60ad532dfca0cce0c9f66b8553
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,768 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 7c | 3,142$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.94 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…c406backed No | 5c | 1,200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 5c | 1,150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 12c | 914.58$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.59 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 9c | 883.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked No | 11c | 749.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked No | 14c | 700$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c55…25c3backed No | 10c | 582.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 7c | 499.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…f426backed No | 10c | 440.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…53c3backed Yes | 60c | 400$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 50c | 369.8$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.12 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 22c | 332.24$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaec…2694backed No | 8c | 258.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 12c | 228.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 52c | 168.95$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 40c | 138$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed No | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed No | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed No | 43c | 117.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fb…40b4backed No | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 13c | 103.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcea8…1f9fbacked No | 46c | 97.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 52c | 97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 13c | 95.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 55c | 91.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 24c | 86.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b27…7495backed No | 41c | 67.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x665e…ea7ebacked No | 50c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…883dbacked No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…d0a7backed No | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2098…c8aebacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 45c | 30.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38cf…7148backed Yes | 40c | 26.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…01ddbacked No | 47c | 25.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.