TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$417,747
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$292,099

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $417,747 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 260 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c17,219$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.224440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes6c13,722$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.56883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes39c12,598$4,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,901.132828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes27c8,913$2,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,401.8218530.3%56 W · 129 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x434f…7d13backed Yes43c8,771$3,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,762.042030%6 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Yes79c6,679$5,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,251.117451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ef…f989backed Yes2c5,953$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7523…4c4cbacked No56c5,934$3,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,639.291040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b3c…8727backed Yes1c5,918$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed Yes4c5,775$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.026250%31 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes33c5,442$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,770.3830233.8%102 W · 200 L+19.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes19c4,904$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.099850%49 W · 49 L+16.1wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+40.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xa756…d2babacked Yes2c4,702$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.961637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39e5…3fdbbacked Yes25c4,422$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3cb…6f90backed Yes8c4,019$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes23c4,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x665e…ea7ebacked No15c3,926$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,318.15475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+162.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa661…af49backed Yes16c3,709$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x635a…81cabacked Yes9c3,355$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-67.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes41c3,238$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,316.437631.6%24 W · 52 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cb3…1356backed Yes0c3,113$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-49.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4079…6b62backed Yes15c3,005$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed Yes11c2,763$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.912630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-43.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5f6…adc3backed No34c2,743$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,802.731060%6 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+63%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x944e…96a8backed Yes4c2,578$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ca…dd70backed Yes1c2,563$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d17…9df1backed Yes50c2,287$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd64e…5516backed Yes29c2,236$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.363636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-43.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c2,225$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.771691.8%3 W · 166 L+0.8wins0.00per pick1cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef87…d589backed Yes17c2,223$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+47%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes45c2,137$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.6134726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1275…29c9backed Yes3c2,112$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.79560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes6c2,025$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8115014%21 W · 129 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No40c1,827$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.2232255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes17c1,803$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,755$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.11,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74b6…134bbacked Yes4c1,640$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b62…9ecdbacked Yes9c1,625$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-66.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes18c1,571$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.1114027.9%39 W · 101 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x969b…db70backed Yes1c1,538$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d2f…24debacked No6c1,443$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350.121442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+67.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32f2…7830backed Yes6c1,440$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.97520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-71%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0480…0a91backed Yes5c1,427$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1025…942abacked Yes8c1,422$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22ec…49f6backed Yes10c1,307$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes6c1,302$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.013925.6%10 W · 29 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick12cpaid+35.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x80b2…c753backed Yes6c1,187$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.031421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-63.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb0…a6a1backed Yes9c1,160$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x529d…6381backed Yes50c1,155$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.153046.7%14 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x280e…3238backed No73c1,132$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.351747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa095…6040backed Yes4c1,051$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.513060%18 W · 12 L+11.7wins+0.39per pick21cpaid+236.6%equal weight74+0.21 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No34c1,043$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.35334%18 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes30c1,000$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.452944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes26c1,000$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.5810928.4%31 W · 78 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick1cpaid+1,011.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe947…ab96backed No51c999.85$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.391241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0d5…66c6backed Yes10c980.31$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb55…3eb2backed Yes1c978.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.31723.5%4 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x949b…b285backed Yes9c935$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b89…9a77backed Yes17c932.45$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.03425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+400%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed No4c927.07$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.986328.6%18 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcef9…7033backed No16c925.21$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.153100%3 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+498%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes27c914.17$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.2556314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xefd1…c520backed Yes9c904.75$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No78c903.96$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.256740.3%27 W · 40 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf772…dbf9backed Yes10c890.36$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.511838.9%7 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc56b…0e6dbacked Yes27c870.11$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.21616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-78.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes12c807.54$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.82920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-0.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes11c806$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4922029.5%65 W · 155 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1873…37b6backed Yes28c800$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.21714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-65.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b5…80eebacked Yes14c799.81$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.22616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid+5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25ad…6b75backed Yes45c780$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.251741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No53c762.82$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.2518246.2%84 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes74c751.67$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.919348.4%45 W · 48 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+29.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0965…bd95backed Yes10c732.64$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd4…6eafbacked Yes18c710$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-60.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes16c700$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.687123.9%17 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+86.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked No13c695.77$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.84922.4%11 W · 38 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5bb…7f36backed Yes20c660.52$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4919…33fbbacked Yes11c650.39$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.81369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+83.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes4c649.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.461357.4%10 W · 125 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f0…b3cabacked Yes2c624.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5850%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes8c620$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.56614.9%3 W · 58 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3aa8…5ad7backed Yes16c617.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc650…6a1bbacked No12c616.87$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+223.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb244…7ed9backed Yes3c615.4$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-44.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed No7c602.27$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.04806.3%5 W · 75 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked No8c600$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554803.8%3 W · 77 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes21c594.11$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.652536%9 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes17c590$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.31330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa403…33aebacked Yes31c574.37$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No33c549.96$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.7715446.8%72 W · 82 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes2c542.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.499942.4%42 W · 57 L-11.0wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-30.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No19c526.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.3226139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec22…89cebacked Yes10c521.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cfa…ea96backed No10c516.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+925.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6e4…2810backed Yes10c504.81$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa309…516dbacked Yes10c501.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+89.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No8c500$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4621152.6%3 W · 112 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf992…ebb5backed Yes22c499.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.