TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x944e…96a8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
141
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: MLB, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 59 out of 100; worst Ligue 1 at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennislast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT6253.2%33 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 62 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Set Handicap: Safiullin (-1.5) vs Grenier (+1.5)backed Grenier · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$43.17
Cincinnati Open: Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoebacked Frances Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Frances Tiafoebacked Brandon Nakashima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Set Handicap: Kumstat (-1.5) vs Tseng (+1.5)backed Kumstat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Prague 2: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Jan Kumstatbacked Jan Kumstat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$24.63
Set Handicap: Kumstat (-1.5) vs Jianu (+1.5)backed Kumstat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$44.34
Set Handicap: Bergs (-1.5) vs Pellegrino (+1.5)backed Bergs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$34.75
Prague 2: Maxim Mrva vs Jan Kumstatbacked Jan Kumstat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$42.59
Cincinnati Open: Nuno Borges vs Brandon Nakashimabacked Brandon Nakashima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$33.33
Cincinnati Open: Jaime Faria vs Adam Waltonbacked Jaime Faria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$36.21
Cincinnati Open: Alexandra Eala vs Amanda Anisimovabacked Alexandra Eala · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Ben Shelton Win the Cincinnati Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Faria (+1.5)backed Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Baez (+1.5)backed Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$48.04
Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5)backed Fils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+87.1%+$43.57
Cincinnati Open: Luciano Darderi vs Rinky Hijikatabacked Luciano Darderi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilicbacked Daniel Merida Aguilar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$42.59
Cincinnati Open: Sebastian Baez vs Grigor Dimitrovbacked Sebastian Baez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$69.05
Cincinnati Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Adolfo Vallejobacked Kyrian Jacquet · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Cincinnati Open: Cameron Norrie vs Dino Prizmicbacked Cameron Norrie · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$31.97
Hagen: Jerome Kym vs Elmer Moellerbacked Jerome Kym · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$28.13
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5)backed Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+108.5%+$54.27
Hagen: Elmer Moeller vs Carlos Tabernerbacked Elmer Moeller · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$30.65
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musettibacked Rafael Jodar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$39.29
Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Navone (+1.5)backed Navone · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Showing 25 of 62 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT4362.8%27 W · 16 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$354.55
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+32.9%+$32.89
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will England win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$185.71
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Portugal vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$42.86
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$170.37
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)backed Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$128.57
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Egypt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$75.44
Spread: Spain (-1.5)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+145.4%+$145.4
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$78.57
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$72.41
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$108.33
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)backed Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$51.52
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$63.93
Spread: Senegal (-1.5)backed Senegal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$72.41
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5)backed Côte d'Ivoire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$49.25
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
MLBlast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT1181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick54cpaid+51.6%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
MLB — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$31.97
New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$54.17
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Raysbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$31.97
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$39.29
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+97.3%+$48.63
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$44.34
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$37.72
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+91.8%+$45.88
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 15-18%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.7
Will Edouard Philippe be the next mayor of Le Havre?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+58.9%+$117.7
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+349.9%+$349.94
Will Josée Massi be the next mayor of Toulon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+115.3%+$230.64
Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+99.7%+$299.2
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+25%+$25
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$28.21
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Sophia Chikirou advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 11 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+103.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)backed Arsenal FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$31.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$14.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.