TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Sophia Chikirou advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$137,133

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,133 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7523…4c4cbacked No15c13,209$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,009.911040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No4c10,031$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.056883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked No31c4,932$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.47728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf041…dde5backed No12c4,618$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.131050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd6…ed52backed No76c4,050$3,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,07810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x744b…8d31backed No3c2,874$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2993…24d6backed Yes24c2,590$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,968.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No11c2,440$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.0937117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No12c2,327$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.539850%49 W · 49 L+16.1wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+40.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c2,100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.64440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88d9…fdd5backed No4c2,085$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.811741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No19c2,043$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.977919%15 W · 64 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed Yes43c1,860$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.22176.2%16 W · 5 L+7.0wins+0.33per pick43cpaid+79.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xbbe5…38c2backed Yes24c1,460$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bd7…4b8ebacked No17c1,173$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x983f…fd5ebacked No12c1,116$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.563551.4%18 W · 17 L+4.7wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+87%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8e8c…bb4abacked No15c1,011$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.462630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-44.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f42…e44ebacked No5c1,005$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.09728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed Yes66c952.96$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.586250%31 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7fc0…8e67backed No14c733.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes60c697.46$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.2611435.1%40 W · 74 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x179d…e18bbacked No12c668.8$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.69616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-65.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4ec…b527backed No13c610$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No28c542.55$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6444921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No8c539.95$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.77728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e24…8266backed No8c500$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.23145.2%14 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+67.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No7c470$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.238142%34 W · 47 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe148…2c34backed No11c459.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x944e…96a8backed No23c433.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfca2…9488backed No11c406.05$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe91d…c4c8backed No10c400$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-61.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed No8c303.24$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.485831%18 W · 40 L+6.8wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+35.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9097…fa4abacked No10c300$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a3…c6e8backed No13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No5c296.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0514027.9%39 W · 101 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8680…a628backed No12c279.72$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.89520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04de…922abacked No11c276.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842c…24dcbacked No10c241.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.89714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-77.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdfe…dce4backed No67c227.72$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.2720%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3de1…8129backed Yes65c217.79$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.64450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+52.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c9…f239backed No5c216$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-69.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No6c210$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0311020.9%23 W · 87 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed Yes33c206.47$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.673647.2%17 W · 19 L+6.8wins+0.19per pick28cpaid+57.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x496c…2d95backed No13c200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bab…b271backed No8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c12…3d74backed No7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-58.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x80b2…c753backed No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-63.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c75…b832backed No8c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No24c200$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710652.8%56 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No11c199.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4139414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x60fd…9bffbacked No12c195.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed No11c190$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.92630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed No38c186.61$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.02110%0 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9e19…ce3fbacked No13c175.24$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9ea8…c8bdbacked No13c166.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.350%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eb8…f6fcbacked Yes55c163.64$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d93…8cbebacked No37c160$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.716940.2%68 W · 101 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed No10c150$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5555.5%3 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-92.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x05c3…8307backed No11c148.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No13c123$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9119742.6%84 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d43…f5a9backed Yes64c118.97$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.691258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+60.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xacba…d3bdbacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd590…5eeebacked No40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xead2…736dbacked No11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No15c99.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4699017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked Yes61c93.61$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.212556.8%71 W · 54 L+12.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No24c90.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8315446.8%72 W · 82 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc452…7234backed Yes57c75.56$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.56425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No14c74.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.483920.5%8 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+27.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No66c70$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461625%4 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e46…85eebacked Yes76c65.93$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4163…d459backed No16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cdf…509dbacked No41c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ba…a177backed No67c50.22$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6330%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd86b…55c9backed No45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes80c39.85$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.075232.7%17 W · 35 L-7.0wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-37%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc042…c240backed No37c38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.06450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes66c38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.893658.3%21 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2b2…4b5fbacked Yes70c29.53$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.881464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdeed…3bb9backed Yes74c26.87$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes59c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.142920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-0.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4919…33fbbacked Yes62c24.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.191369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+83.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb1f7…ebccbacked Yes58c20.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.58742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde06…3cabbacked Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-60%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a87…3e26backed Yes58c17.56$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.361338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick60cpaid-45.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa010…9495backed Yes68c16.22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc87b…f01ebacked Yes77c14.69$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.