TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe91d…c4c8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
48
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 53 out of 100; worst Premier League at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2025, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid+159.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City win Group G at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$29
Will Benfica vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Inter Miami CF win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Chelsea win Group D at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$33
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma be named the Champions League Final man of the match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$5.8
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.8
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+2,476.5%+$1,017.27
Champions League Final: 3+ goals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.1
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$61.55
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.77
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.9
All 11 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick31cpaid-85.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Premier League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$203.5
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.41
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.5
Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the EPL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$7.4
Arsenal wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.9
Manchester City wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.49
Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$46.34
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-61.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick33cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.6
UEFA Nations League: Spain vs. France (To Advance)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$36
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20.4
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+67%+$56.57
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick22cpaid+365.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+365.1%+$392.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Napoli win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$31.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$9.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$27.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.