F1 · resolved market
F1: Will Lawson finish ahead of Tsunoda in the Japanese Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6836b7efc9171b7dd8f1ed1d2e543fdf28028f7618bf0f6a45faf117cfb53301
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b1d…dc5ebacked No | 8c | 900$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +525%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…d78cbacked Yes | 8c | 885$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b1…8660backed Yes | 33c | 885$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…b1b4backed Yes | 31c | 850$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8960…7ffbbacked Yes | 7c | 850$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a5…834bbacked No | 9c | 780$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 29c | 687.82$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.77 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 26c | 456.47$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.94 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…7f5abacked No | 73c | 440.95$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 69c | 317.91$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.63 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc26…24d0backed Yes | 39c | 316$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.82 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…d072backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa43e…aef5backed No | 68c | 169.28$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 61c | 144.07$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ea…6575backed Yes | 31c | 130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f65…8356backed No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…c656backed Yes | 33c | 117.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…f3b9backed Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02fc…0853backed No | 72c | 107.63$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…a9d8backed No | 71c | 106.65$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe91d…c4c8backed Yes | 30c | 106.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8a…d01dbacked Yes | 35c | 103.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…6578backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xccce…2c7cbacked Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…3a62backed No | 64c | 80.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…8e5fbacked Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…82e0backed No | 77c | 76.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…24f4backed Yes | 41c | 72.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d0…2731backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc4…e66fbacked Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…6b77backed Yes | 37c | 65.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x461d…5d12backed No | 69c | 59.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17c…1750backed Yes | 48c | 53.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3596…6c81backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5e…1802backed Yes | 36c | 49.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e5…8d6ebacked Yes | 41c | 44.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 50c | 41.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7339…ce1cbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…8f61backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…f337backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd64f…cedebacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…7667backed No | 68c | 22.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65ac…6a55backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.