TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x65ac…6a55

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
55
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: F1, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category F1 at 57 out of 100; worst Champions League at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT2138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$18.74
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.36
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+175.5%+$31.85
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$676Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$675.58
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$17.18
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.46
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$440Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+31.8%+$139.8
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.3
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+39.3%+$49.29
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+41%+$76.59
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.34
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.11
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$254.99
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$992Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+68%+$675.3
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.03
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.61
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.91
All 21 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2025, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
F1 — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Mercedes have the highest Constructor score at the Bahrain GP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$6.13
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$9
Will Ferrari have the highest Constructor score at the Japanese GP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$9.6
F1: Will Lawson finish ahead of Tsunoda in the Japanese Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$6.4
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 China Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$13.6
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+41.6%+$4.85
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+66.7%+$13.48
All 9 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Aug 9, 2025, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+97.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2025, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+147%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Du Plessis vs. Stricklandbacked Du Plessis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+49.3%+$5.61
Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedovbacked Dvalishvili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+244.8%+$85.91
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Eigenlayer airdrop by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2024, EDT+28.2%+$16.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$60.28
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.