Dota2 · resolved market
Will Team Falcons win the 2025 Dota 2 Esports World Cup Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2349d8b5712896766333fa7a2960344fd256e8b19804284fb2b7195a5372398c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,327$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…1ad5backed Yes | 6c | 1,511$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8b…d96dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,448$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ac…6a55backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 73c | 907.02$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.9 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 68c | 678.39$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.93 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed Yes | 10c | 586.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 28c | 500$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.4 | 82 | 23.2%19 W · 63 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x439f…eb00backed Yes | 2c | 499.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Yes | 9c | 434$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f8…a80abacked Yes | 9c | 404.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 67c | 404.05$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked Yes | 36c | 277.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdc…27bebacked Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…c206backed Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 12c | 195.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 162 | 32.7%53 W · 109 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 175$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d9…ada1backed Yes | 29c | 172.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8009…ca1bbacked Yes | 38c | 131.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 25c | 60.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f23…1180backed Yes | 29c | 54.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…6e0ebacked Yes | 30c | 49.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed No | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 67c | 19.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Team Falcons win the 2025 Dota 2 Esports World Cup Tournament?this page
- Will Aurora Gaming win the 2025 Dota 2 Esports World Cup Tournament?No won
- Will BB Team win the 2025 Dota 2 Esports World Cup Tournament?No won
- Will Gaimin Gladiators win the 2025 Dota 2 Esports World Cup Tournament?No won
- Will PVISION win the 2025 Dota 2 Esports World Cup Tournament?No won
- Will Team Liquid win the 2025 Dota 2 Esports World Cup Tournament?No won
- Will Team Spirit win the 2025 Dota 2 Esports World Cup Tournament?Yes won
- Will Tundra Esports win the 2025 Dota 2 Esports World Cup Tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.