Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb2eec2e72db2cdd9d3813d59b0d5766c10ea3873d422b19fc428fbed27a20f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $418,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $418,183 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 380 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 71c | 15,266$10,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,357.62 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…e581backed Yes | 24c | 15,210$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,609.43 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 19c | 10,000$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,099.94 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 62c | 9,935$6,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,170.53 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 1c | 9,085$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 43c | 7,431$3,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,203.23 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 26c | 6,993$1,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,168.33 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdc…e19ebacked Yes | 26c | 5,847$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,347.46 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 19c | 5,262$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,245.36 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 28c | 5,088$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,647.84 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…0d6abacked Yes | 20c | 4,879$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,879.04 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 17c | 4,716$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,918.99 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 22c | 4,592$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,602.39 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 72c | 4,149$2,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.54 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 58c | 3,900$2,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,638.36 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 60c | 3,649$2,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,206.91 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 61c | 3,603$2,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,207.86 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked No | 67c | 3,076$2,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,066.46 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 2c | 2,940$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 33c | 2,894$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,946.09 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 38c | 2,883$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,795.71 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 21c | 2,714$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,146.21 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed No | 80c | 2,521$2,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,015.08 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bc…5377backed Yes | 34c | 2,392$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,583.72 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked No | 1c | 2,300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 29c | 2,222$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.84 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 58c | 2,200$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.79 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 2,164$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.12 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 16c | 2,027$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,701.65 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,699.98 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.97 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,779.93 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x266e…17e5backed No | 1c | 1,917$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 43c | 1,769$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.63 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4239…5dafbacked Yes | 66c | 1,732$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.67 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 54c | 1,722$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.44 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 54c | 1,694$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.27 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 73c | 1,607$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.25 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 74c | 1,582$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.41 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 42c | 1,572$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.88 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 69c | 1,500$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.19 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 26c | 1,500$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.78 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d9…780cbacked Yes | 62c | 1,405$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.42 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 29c | 1,404$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.06 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 73c | 1,375$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71c2…db9bbacked No | 77c | 1,350$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.02 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x466b…f89bbacked Yes | 49c | 1,326$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.14 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed No | 76c | 1,321$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,306$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.02 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…f4b2backed Yes | 17c | 1,200$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 49c | 1,199$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.5 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa752…e19fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,100$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x435a…c529backed Yes | 20c | 1,092$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 25c | 1,020$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.21 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b8…e9f3backed No | 2c | 999.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 20%12 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes | 20c | 999.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.99 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 23c | 999.66$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.07 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 37c | 982.72$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.04 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…119ebacked Yes | 19c | 954.22$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.22 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf0…133fbacked Yes | 65c | 951.52$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.63 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6741…9f3fbacked Yes | 17c | 830.51$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…7f66backed No | 3c | 782.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 197 | 26.9%53 W · 144 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…5be3backed Yes | 19c | 780$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.83 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 15c | 768.65$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.04 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 13c | 752.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.29 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed Yes | 24c | 744.53$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.2 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x102b…a7acbacked Yes | 59c | 713.83$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.43 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64cc…0da1backed Yes | 29c | 713.68$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.17 | 111 | 18.9%21 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…c878backed Yes | 70c | 712.71$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.9 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed No | 7c | 712.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb622…facfbacked No | 2c | 699.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 20c | 689.98$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.78 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 15c | 668.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.59 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 62c | 614.03$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.07 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa657…00bfbacked Yes | 28c | 607.18$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.01 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 28c | 600.18$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.11 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…3ef0backed Yes | 18c | 560$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.2 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b5…11a3backed No | 66c | 555.34$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.61 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 26c | 551.46$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.17 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 19c | 550$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.5 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 19c | 514$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes | 14c | 508$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.96 | 124 | 16.9%21 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 19c | 506.5$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.5 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.66 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 24c | 500$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.69 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…0f2ebacked No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 19c | 499.98$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.98 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 22c | 492.01$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.01 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed No | 76c | 491.73$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.75 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 23c | 485.69$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.83 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 21c | 438.95$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.95 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab4…bcfbbacked No | 78c | 438$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.34 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -78%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 20c | 434.91$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.32 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc1…3058backed No | 67c | 427.91$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.89 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…9233backed Yes | 45c | 427$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.76 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a28…1df7backed No | 7c | 424$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 180 | 24.4%44 W · 136 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb19…9a2abacked Yes | 20c | 410$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6285…3ae5backed No | 77c | 409.94$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.