Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53d9bfa100ba711e08bcca20564890da16531a4ef3092efd88449bbbe8fbf19c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $689,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $689,435 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 437 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 21c | 24,952$5,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,331.53 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 11c | 13,465$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.66 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x627b…d304backed Yes | 0c | 10,485$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 1c | 9,643$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.43 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 38c | 8,365$3,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,164.08 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 61c | 7,773$4,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,774.64 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 38c | 6,715$2,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,525 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 49c | 6,061$2,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,067.32 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 21c | 5,624$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.45 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 36c | 4,383$1,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.75 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 57c | 4,197$2,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,802.15 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 10c | 3,956$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.58 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 32c | 3,720$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.89 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bc…5377backed Yes | 36c | 3,664$1,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,307.95 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x653f…c386backed No | 78c | 3,585$2,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.3 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 57c | 3,460$1,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975.73 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 62c | 3,200$1,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,979.45 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdc…e19ebacked No | 32c | 3,100$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,099.53 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54de…d617backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 34c | 2,837$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.45 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 20c | 2,684$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.3 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked No | 68c | 2,612$1,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.96 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 31c | 2,439$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.97 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 53c | 2,370$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260.01 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8e…c29ebacked Yes | 28c | 2,200$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 2,164$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.51 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 18c | 2,080$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.44 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 2,073$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.58 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 28c | 2,000$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked Yes | 2c | 1,876$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…5447backed Yes | 43c | 1,862$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.68 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,772$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.13 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 1,706$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.96 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f6…db6fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,699$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.01 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 39c | 1,689$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.65 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 32c | 1,652$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.75 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…119ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,616$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.25 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 32c | 1,587$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.62 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…f3e8backed Yes | 76c | 1,536$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.87 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 24c | 1,424$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.89 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 5c | 1,400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 43c | 1,389$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.67 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 47c | 1,345$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.66 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466b…f89bbacked Yes | 45c | 1,329$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.62 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eff…98febacked Yes | 2c | 1,295$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…1af9backed Yes | 16c | 1,286$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 52c | 1,250$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…1a31backed No | 56c | 1,250$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.99 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…4896backed No | 37c | 1,219$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.62 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 69c | 1,204$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.38 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 30c | 1,200$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.64 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4239…5dafbacked Yes | 67c | 1,193$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.77 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…eb72backed No | 39c | 1,163$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.09 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a03…86dcbacked No | 58c | 1,162$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.89 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,155$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.18 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Yes | 8c | 1,152$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.61 | 161 | 10.6%17 W · 144 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 3c | 1,150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 345 | 15.9%55 W · 290 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x729e…e23ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,149$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.96 | 238 | 31.1%74 W · 164 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb243…9297backed Yes | 2c | 1,143$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c2…db9bbacked Yes | 62c | 1,131$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.49 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,072$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.29 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 67c | 1,060$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.53 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 57c | 1,059$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.66 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 22c | 1,022$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.52 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 46c | 1,020$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.9 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 3c | 1,001$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 22c | 1,001$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.7 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 39c | 1,000$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 135 | 13.3%18 W · 117 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 63c | 927.59$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.69 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed No | 28c | 926.56$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.12 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 22c | 919.98$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 39c | 907.63$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.64 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f3…0a98backed Yes | 29c | 865.49$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.3 | 124 | 16.1%20 W · 104 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 43c | 858.14$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a0…5963backed Yes | 24c | 854$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.98 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 60c | 838.7$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.38 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed No | 66c | 828.3$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.76 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4b…74d1backed Yes | 18c | 800$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked Yes | 4c | 800$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…da97backed Yes | 15c | 797.95$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 341 | 27.3%93 W · 248 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x102b…a7acbacked Yes | 38c | 795.2$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…d581backed Yes | 27c | 750.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 61c | 738.82$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.48 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64cc…0da1backed Yes | 37c | 737.4$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 111 | 18.9%21 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa124…1f66backed Yes | 72c | 700$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 58c | 686.74$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.55 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d9…780cbacked Yes | 24c | 666.3$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.33 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 31c | 657.12$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed No | 62c | 647.31$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.31 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 35c | 640.41$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.79 | 137 | 18.2%25 W · 112 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 63c | 625.92$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.59 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 53c | 623.35$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.61 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f4…4064backed Yes | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 49c | 598$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.49 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…753fbacked Yes | 35c | 585.5$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.58 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96c…43f3backed No | 63c | 553.6$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa657…00bfbacked Yes | 65c | 539.69$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.37 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172b…e2cdbacked Yes | 54c | 505.26$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.68 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 5c | 504.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.