TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$620,529

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $620,529 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 313 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes16c60,139$9,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,44263414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0c4…978fbacked Yes18c54,619$9,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,665.521553.3%8 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.23per pick30cpaid+27.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes10c14,149$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.041,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes4c12,020$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.3528534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes16c9,121$1,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.8456429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes17c8,296$1,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,373.9920735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes13c7,617$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.289711.3%11 W · 86 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-63%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes10c7,213$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.2557222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes7c6,880$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.2356817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes17c6,590$1,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.4431621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes13c5,883$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.729227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes8c5,151$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.9728526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes11c5,025$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.5288018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes15c4,891$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.9214928.2%42 W · 107 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes9c4,397$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.6257621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes3c3,948$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13546521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes16c3,147$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.0121213.2%28 W · 184 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No72c3,062$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.2554675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes17c3,034$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.5513511.9%16 W · 119 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes25c2,970$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.312,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes12c2,804$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.8288017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes13c2,680$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.3534215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes1c2,606$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.184568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes9c2,522$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.8724815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes16c2,511$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.7443933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x274c…4824backed Yes8c2,392$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1968425%21 W · 63 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes29c2,387$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.51119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid+81.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes16c2,263$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.686819.1%13 W · 55 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed No78c2,100$1,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.5715649.4%77 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes4c2,100$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0331722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked No80c2,052$1,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.2515435.1%54 W · 100 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x671a…3b1ebacked Yes27c2,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5404816.7%8 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+28.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.718822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes12c1,868$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.3528016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes11c1,841$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.3219722.8%45 W · 152 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes13c1,740$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.491,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes5c1,700$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2523819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes16c1,680$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.3463821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes17c1,653$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.8127316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes6c1,598$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.7332716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66e5…a85bbacked Yes4c1,577$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.732313%3 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a80…729cbacked Yes6c1,527$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.415411.1%6 W · 48 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick15cpaid+38%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes19c1,516$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.4312412.1%15 W · 109 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes5c1,512$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0262412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes7c1,500$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.41,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes14c1,495$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.4733231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2f3…3137backed Yes5c1,482$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1f6…db6fbacked Yes10c1,413$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.623318.2%6 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78a4…824bbacked Yes5c1,330$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes7c1,309$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.410431.7%33 W · 71 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+125.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c2b…d581backed Yes37c1,294$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4791729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf400…83adbacked Yes5c1,281$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes7c1,248$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.462727%19 W · 253 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb519…481bbacked Yes5c1,221$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc25e…5908backed Yes3c1,189$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes19c1,180$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.517022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes5c1,180$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5612114%17 W · 104 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes11c1,151$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.5420924.9%52 W · 157 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9993…a6cbbacked Yes6c1,108$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34bf…26e7backed Yes19c1,071$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.457939.2%31 W · 48 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1c…ed69backed Yes5c1,060$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes18c1,020$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.056222.6%14 W · 48 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes23c1,015$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2309626%25 W · 71 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes33c1,009$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.7725023.2%58 W · 192 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes22c1,000$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21517628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes20c1,000$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20315128.5%43 W · 108 L+0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes26c989.07$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.531,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x518a…e507backed Yes5c959$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa657…00bfbacked Yes7c953.8$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.113933.3%13 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes12c940.75$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9428025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12b0…e6d7backed No77c920$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.69923.2%23 W · 76 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+60.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e6b…caeebacked Yes3c904$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84fd…2040backed Yes6c892$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes19c878.28$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.6726211.1%29 W · 233 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb104…10c9backed Yes14c866.29$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.375024%12 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-42.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed No80c846.79$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.361,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No76c823.18$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.0226167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06f5…878dbacked Yes3c814$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb3…b8f5backed Yes6c809$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x435a…c529backed Yes27c790.27$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.371637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a1b…67b1backed Yes15c787.39$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.6950%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes20c785.94$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.9126411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes24c779$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18442312.5%53 W · 370 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e9d…f0b7backed Yes6c723.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.94425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick5cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa47a…4b4cbacked Yes5c712$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes14c706.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5710917.4%19 W · 90 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes26c699.98$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.9948819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fef…fe37backed Yes5c690$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes6c689$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9476821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c670$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.262,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes8c655.74$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3124710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x729e…e23ebacked Yes15c654.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023831.1%74 W · 164 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f0…1c1ebacked Yes5c647$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea7…1a03backed Yes5c646$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x127a…bd94backed Yes5c636$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2650%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f5…0d3dbacked No79c624.71$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.197841%32 W · 46 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc79…4f4ebacked Yes5c623$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbfe…d542backed Yes4c599.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed Yes13c599.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767626.3%20 W · 56 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c599.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.