TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tundra Esportsof Team Spirit, Tundra Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,687
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$88,834

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,687 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Spirit51c19,617$10,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,053.6255157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Tundra Esports38c7,497$2,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,614.891,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Tundra Esports51c6,622$3,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,215.432854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Tundra Esports58c6,132$3,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,551.9647660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Tundra Esports41c4,000$1,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,378.81,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Tundra Esports38c3,875$1,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,398.521,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Tundra Esports47c2,974$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.131,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Tundra Esports50c2,783$1,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,383.591,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed Tundra Esports32c2,701$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,844.2920949.3%103 W · 106 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Spirit48c2,687$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276.8996557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Spirit37c2,021$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.852,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Team Spirit77c1,699$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30041655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x503d…886abacked Tundra Esports28c1,526$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.932931%9 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x149b…0ca8backed Team Spirit16c1,311$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.291926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.8wins-0.20per pick46cpaid-57.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Spirit51c1,160$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.611,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Team Spirit38c1,149$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.0977941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Spirit47c1,124$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.2366662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x41cc…adc7backed Team Spirit6c1,029$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.244045%18 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Team Spirit72c963.26$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.0834468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Spirit54c960.51$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5182,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed Tundra Esports36c829.06$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.069959.6%59 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed Team Spirit45c777.78$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010334%35 W · 68 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Spirit62c700$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43479959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3265…d5b8backed Team Spirit8c687.1$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.825942.4%25 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Tundra Esports33c664.43$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.5377458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Team Spirit69c500$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.8636054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8e…156fbacked Tundra Esports38c473.68$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.684252.4%22 W · 20 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+18.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed Tundra Esports43c461.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.825457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b84…48e3backed Tundra Esports24c424.23$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.823050%15 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+22.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb12…4210backed Team Spirit47c423.28$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.451952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeb9…300bbacked Team Spirit63c405.35$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ae…c89abacked Team Spirit69c385.67$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.1120%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9fb…95fbbacked Tundra Esports34c353.65$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.418854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9bd…ed23backed Team Spirit39c272.33$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.211844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Team Spirit64c262.69$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.1254445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91c7…2331backed Team Spirit45c256.82$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Tundra Esports60c256.72$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.6951140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Tundra Esports60c248.52$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5253844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9798…12d2backed Tundra Esports42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.12045%9 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Tundra Esports64c234.38$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.3826957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Team Spirit71c220$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.859250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaae…ec88backed Team Spirit50c200.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017146.8%80 W · 91 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed Team Spirit64c199.63$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.7621346.5%99 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Tundra Esports50c188.3$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7553757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4605…5299backed Team Spirit64c174.42$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.638833%29 W · 59 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fc2…64d1backed Tundra Esports27c174.07$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.0711043.6%48 W · 62 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Tundra Esports26c171.71$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.0733645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Tundra Esports31c170.69$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.293138.7%12 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+30.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Tundra Esports59c169.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.5328650%143 W · 143 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Tundra Esports48c165.45$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.663032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd988…fd9dbacked Team Spirit78c161.18$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.971241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-37.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Tundra Esports63c157.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.979053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked Team Spirit74c150$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11137754.9%207 W · 170 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x641f…942bbacked Tundra Esports67c121$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405549.1%27 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Team Spirit39c118.04$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.983056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Tundra Esports12c113.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.7718143.6%79 W · 102 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Tundra Esports36c111.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.1143647.5%207 W · 229 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22f5…795bbacked Team Spirit50c102$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516160.7%37 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Tundra Esports59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4158152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1532…1dadbacked Tundra Esports18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6722654.4%123 W · 103 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa7…003fbacked Tundra Esports54c99.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4645052.4%236 W · 214 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Tundra Esports38c95.71$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2238855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2057…14eabacked Tundra Esports75c93$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.25633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-52.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9332…a3dbbacked Team Spirit44c89.9$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4076048.6%369 W · 391 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4cb…63bebacked Team Spirit46c86.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4012455.6%69 W · 55 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Team Spirit64c85.47$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.792056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Tundra Esports38c79.09$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0959556.6%337 W · 258 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab05…52e9backed Team Spirit54c78.09$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1717448.9%85 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9718…dd82backed Team Spirit41c73.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308636%31 W · 55 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-24.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbda6…6ae0backed Tundra Esports48c72$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0836051.9%187 W · 173 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Team Spirit63c70$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.188166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Team Spirit38c70$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.567853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63ec…3b5bbacked Team Spirit55c67.71$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f46…cddbbacked Team Spirit45c66.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3024052.1%125 W · 115 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf938…1249backed Team Spirit51c62.11$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6717360.7%105 W · 68 L-13.6wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-13.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x373a…b7f2backed Team Spirit50c60.01$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d03…b8a6backed Team Spirit68c60$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.821465%139 W · 75 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa03…0799backed Tundra Esports48c55.83$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.031181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.23per pick59cpaid+35.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Tundra Esports25c55.63$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.91,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Tundra Esports56c55.28$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.421,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65ac…6a55backed Team Spirit60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfebc…0194backed Team Spirit65c48$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.21560%9 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Tundra Esports36c47.39$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.365044%22 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd752…7b4fbacked Tundra Esports63c46.03$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0335461.3%217 W · 137 L+0.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2d4…b96cbacked Tundra Esports49c44.7$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.867048.6%34 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Tundra Esports24c43.75$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2520952.6%110 W · 99 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Tundra Esports61c40.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9895841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed Tundra Esports57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.226661.7%164 W · 102 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Team Spirit39c38.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513140.5%53 W · 78 L-12.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xac9c…50d8backed Team Spirit74c35.65$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.214522.2%10 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Spirit56c34.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.611,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Team Spirit40c33.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3381029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x252f…2561backed Tundra Esports60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3331659.8%189 W · 127 L+18.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Tundra Esports62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2626958.7%158 W · 111 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…03cbbacked Team Spirit62c32.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209137.4%34 W · 57 L-8.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa0f5…57e2backed Tundra Esports64c31.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2450855.5%282 W · 226 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5524…2f3cbacked Team Spirit41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.36844.1%30 W · 38 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60ec…5b5bbacked Team Spirit78c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.330%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x18ad…1103backed Team Spirit40c29.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d31…07b0backed Team Spirit67c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6525255.2%139 W · 113 L+1.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.