Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cdaabb943a6efa3b64b391857b2f6b7c11b6b7cf341f4147e802109fcbfef91

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $981,407

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $981,407 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 652 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	10c	73,666$7,702 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,701.62	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	11c	64,101$6,984 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,983.54	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	17c	30,225$5,120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,120.33	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed No	76c	25,190$19,018 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,171.47	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+132.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	25,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	17c	18,471$3,054 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,053.83	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	5c	18,330$978 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$978.03	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	14c	17,077$2,446 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,445.72	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe11e…ff89backed Yes	15c	16,389$2,439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,439.47	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x698a…cc0bbacked Yes	0c	15,700$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a0b…c7abbacked Yes	1c	13,873$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.87	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes	0c	11,687$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.37	71	0%0 W · 71 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	2c	11,395$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.28	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	21c	11,268$2,347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,347.25	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefdc…e19ebacked Yes	19c	10,790$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4154…1808backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x199f…6e76backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	19c	9,556$1,858 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,858.26	532	22.7%121 W · 411 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	11c	9,355$1,007 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,006.84	876	18.4%161 W · 715 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes	17c	8,891$1,471 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,470.95	207	35.3%73 W · 134 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed Yes	2c	8,888$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.76	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	11c	8,299$897 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$897.49	879	17.2%151 W · 728 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	6c	8,285$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504.08	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	2c	8,200$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.6	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	13c	8,096$1,059 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,058.71	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	4c	7,726$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.6	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes	2c	7,103$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.98	256	17.2%44 W · 212 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	4c	6,969$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.74	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	19c	6,575$1,221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,221.14	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	9c	6,383$595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$595	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	13c	6,162$809 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$808.7	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes	11c	6,006$634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$634.27	158	19%30 W · 128 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9df…76c1backed Yes	6c	5,764$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	14c	5,699$801 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$801.14	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	8c	5,236$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$443.35	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	15c	5,228$796 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$795.58	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	10c	5,156$523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522.76	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb29…64f3backed Yes	6c	5,020$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.09	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	37cpaid	+90.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	12c	4,841$566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$566.31	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	13c	4,738$622 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$621.5	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	79c	4,646$3,674 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$971.53	246	72.8%179 W · 67 L	+15.5wins	+0.06per pick	66cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	6c	4,449$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.93	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes	11c	4,448$476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$476.19	102	16.7%17 W · 85 L	+6.7wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	20c	4,339$874 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$874.41	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	76c	4,198$3,197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,001.1	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	79c	4,100$3,236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$864.35	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	13c	4,049$546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$546.36	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	10c	3,997$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.02	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	6c	3,987$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.6	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes	15c	3,951$581 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580.96	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	12c	3,650$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.25	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes	22c	3,554$778 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$777.62	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	-6.2wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	12c	3,501$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.01	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes	6c	3,052$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.31	51	15.7%8 W · 43 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	7c	3,039$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.18	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes	3c	3,027$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	177	28.2%50 W · 127 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	9c	3,000$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.31	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	9c	2,971$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	79c	2,943$2,320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$622.91	186	76.9%143 W · 43 L	+11.9wins	+0.06per pick	70cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a75…4bb1backed Yes	8c	2,902$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.45	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	12c	2,801$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.49	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5dd…e40cbacked Yes	14c	2,778$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.83	58	17.2%10 W · 48 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	14c	2,657$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.47	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3986…0c06backed Yes	5c	2,619$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	14cpaid	+90%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bf1…6595backed Yes	15c	2,431$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.3	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	+4.4wins	+0.13per pick	33cpaid	+81.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d61…2c99backed Yes	14c	2,423$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.68	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes	7c	2,400$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	+139.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c09…eea9backed Yes	22c	2,383$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes	19c	2,340$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.21	171	26.9%46 W · 125 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No	78c	2,289$1,793 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$495.81	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c3d…8d58backed Yes	12c	2,273$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.05	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1137…978dbacked Yes	22c	2,241$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.72	100	32%32 W · 68 L	-7.0wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	8c	2,224$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.31	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	11c	2,222$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.21	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	24c	2,127$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	19c	2,098$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.58	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	12c	2,015$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.87	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25c2…08c7backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	86	19.8%17 W · 69 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x554a…a8f7backed Yes	25c	1,995$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	47cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3af…f4f8backed Yes	17c	1,981$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.13	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	14c	1,979$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.83	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	15c	1,968$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.77	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	15c	1,956$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.73	630	21.7%137 W · 493 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf22f…7714backed Yes	10c	1,928$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+79.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	10c	1,892$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.47	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	5c	1,887$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	22c	1,857$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403.14	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes	8c	1,800$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.9	101	14.9%15 W · 86 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes	14c	1,798$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	131	16.8%22 W · 109 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+57.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	14c	1,779$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.57	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	18c	1,774$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.96	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9bf…dfaebacked Yes	11c	1,757$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa25a…3e8ebacked Yes	7c	1,744$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.01	63	12.7%8 W · 55 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3cb…ef82backed Yes	11c	1,590$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.73	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+85.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes	25c	1,581$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	101	25.7%26 W · 75 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes	20c	1,556$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.08	285	26.7%76 W · 209 L	-11.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	13c	1,544$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.59	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	19c	1,530$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.82	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event