Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4f375f30261857e3469d9426ed1b8cb29ea846d17ee63d6f9a61ce63ff49292

Rebuilt 36 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $332,783

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $332,783 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 281 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc4a2…6fc8backed Yes	0c	44,000$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	+57.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	33,226$1,292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,292.41	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	25,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	0c	20,833$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	15,709$1,445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,445.25	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	38	2.6%1 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	0cpaid	+2,531.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	13,211$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	7c	10,956$769 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$769.45	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee4f…89f5backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb57…6a21backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	64	20.3%13 W · 51 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e99…72a0backed Yes	1c	9,469$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127	145	7.6%11 W · 134 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	3c	8,800$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.51	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	8,453$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.2	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e22…3061backed Yes	0c	7,550$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.38	29	0%0 W · 29 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	3c	7,288$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.76	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	13c	6,809$877 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$876.75	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes	3c	6,806$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.38	79	7.6%6 W · 73 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	8c	5,499$447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$446.99	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	13c	5,000$667 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$666.9	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	7c	4,945$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.23	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	3c	4,321$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.26	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	11c	4,125$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$434.22	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2390…1d10backed Yes	13c	3,956$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530.68	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	8c	3,800$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.68	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	5c	3,791$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.5	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fb…3d55backed Yes	3c	3,754$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.17	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	17cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96b2…111cbacked Yes	14c	3,451$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	6c	3,436$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.53	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	3,300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	13c	3,275$429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.78	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd79a…9167backed Yes	0c	3,111$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	8c	3,070$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.34	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0228…a700backed Yes	3c	2,994$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes	2c	2,849$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.3	93	2.2%2 W · 91 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe11e…ff89backed Yes	8c	2,837$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.85	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	5c	2,786$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.06	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	9c	2,755$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.93	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	11c	2,662$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.49	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	12c	2,567$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301	266	19.5%52 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	4c	2,549$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes	12c	2,526$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes	11c	2,468$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.95	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fbd…4c05backed Yes	0c	2,451$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	9c	2,386$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.17	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d0c…f55fbacked Yes	1c	2,318$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.86	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cc7…7349backed Yes	1c	2,212$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ab6…75b5backed Yes	12c	2,150$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.3	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	14c	2,108$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	6c	2,091$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.65	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	2,037$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.74	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b21…5f56backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	1,700$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.4	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce26…f3e8backed Yes	12c	1,682$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.63	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d54…3e28backed Yes	1c	1,682$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes	17c	1,646$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.23	207	35.3%73 W · 134 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cca…f402backed Yes	16c	1,642$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.18	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x969c…1039backed Yes	12c	1,633$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	40	15%6 W · 34 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16a8…7d0cbacked Yes	6c	1,615$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes	8c	1,587$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.8	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x010c…6134backed Yes	13c	1,512$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.73	129	14.7%19 W · 110 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	8c	1,444$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f7e…59d2backed Yes	11c	1,405$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.15	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc9df…76c1backed Yes	4c	1,383$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.32	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	9c	1,381$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.45	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	15c	1,331$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	1,303$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	9c	1,295$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.52	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes	9c	1,294$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95cd…62d6backed Yes	10c	1,280$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.65	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66d9…3146backed Yes	3c	1,268$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	+2.4wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+66.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0b6…90a8backed Yes	2c	1,260$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c3d…8d58backed Yes	14c	1,233$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.99	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	12c	1,203$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.9	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2959…bdf1backed Yes	11c	1,180$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.82	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb461…55ecbacked Yes	3c	1,171$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	11c	1,163$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.23	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	2c	1,150$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	334	15.6%52 W · 282 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	6c	1,131$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.6	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	7c	1,113$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.08	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe29b…da59backed Yes	7c	1,109$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.12	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	6c	1,100$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.94	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	4c	1,098$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.18	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4243…47a8backed Yes	10c	1,090$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.53	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	8c	1,059$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.72	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe380…70e2backed Yes	6c	1,049$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.52	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-3.7wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	9c	1,047$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.57	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	7c	1,023$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2511…5ae9backed Yes	11c	1,001$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.4	65	13.8%9 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	12c	1,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.22	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	10c	1,000$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.35	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf516…1ea1backed Yes	8c	1,000$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.1	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	8c	1,000$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+105%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	1c	986.04$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.17	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79b9…7d93backed Yes	17c	972$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.01	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-63.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1169…d622backed Yes	6c	960.07$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a6…1c2ebacked Yes	13c	959.55$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.73	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-79%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event