Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8d718edbc9f287c6ca24f131cf130ee7ae019b4c1a79b284713a0bbb0cb62b1

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 7, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $196,889

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $196,889 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4f9f…19b7backed Yes	0c	32,281$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	18cpaid	-12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	27,026$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.56	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	13,873$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.19	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	13,159$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.08	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcb9…8afabacked Yes	0c	12,500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	38	2.6%1 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	0cpaid	+2,531.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3368…46c9backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6297…1302backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	0%0 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	6,710$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.51	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e99…3cbabacked Yes	1c	4,793$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.55	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	4,405$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.39	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	4c	4,283$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.88	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	5c	4,041$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.65	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	4,013$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.97	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	4c	3,964$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	3,865$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.16	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	3,790$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.32	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a44…0196backed Yes	0c	3,784$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	5c	3,579$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.08	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	3,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	2c	2,818$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.19	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	2,800$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.12	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b6…90a8backed Yes	3c	1,937$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.11	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	1,784$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.01	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	1c	1,766$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.67	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes	6c	1,692$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.33	79	7.6%6 W · 73 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	4c	1,620$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.34	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	3c	1,508$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.5	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,434$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a82…68e8backed Yes	1c	1,301$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.48	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c09…eea9backed Yes	8c	1,243$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,206$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.68	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes	5c	1,153$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	137	18.2%25 W · 112 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3159…5f35backed Yes	1c	1,082$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16a8…7d0cbacked Yes	9c	1,065$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x294a…bbbabacked Yes	1c	999.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+210.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2dfa…e524backed Yes	5c	999.99$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	2cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b6…9ff5backed Yes	7c	999.7$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	84	20.2%17 W · 67 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	2c	926.14$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.68	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x010c…6134backed Yes	6c	925.74$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.24	129	14.7%19 W · 110 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf69…0c0fbacked Yes	6c	845.3$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.14per pick	14cpaid	+128.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf841…2ba5backed Yes	1c	802.69$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	150	21.3%32 W · 118 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes	5c	685.57$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.97	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8303…d68bbacked Yes	4c	651.82$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	4c	648.3$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.82	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79b9…7d93backed Yes	6c	632.48$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.78	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-63.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes	2c	600.13$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	115	7.8%9 W · 106 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2094…16d0backed Yes	5c	592.72$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	571.53$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.03	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3685…0123backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	7c	488.11$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.89	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	6c	483.32$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.76	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ab6…75b5backed Yes	9c	458.24$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.6	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5e8…79f8backed Yes	7c	443.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0da…8288backed Yes	5c	425.53$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc73…d73abacked Yes	8c	404$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.6	51	29.4%15 W · 36 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcccd…1c5ebacked Yes	6c	399.97$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	45	15.6%7 W · 38 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-53.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe380…70e2backed Yes	5c	393.17$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.76	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-3.7wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	6c	385.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.82	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	7c	367.2$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.52	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	8c	327.36$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.98	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59fb…a55bbacked Yes	8c	204.27$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e07…36a9backed Yes	8c	195.01$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	95	11.6%11 W · 84 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dea…5d20backed Yes	9c	163.49$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cea…f265backed Yes	8c	150$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	13cpaid	+32.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes	9c	139.55$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	99	22.2%22 W · 77 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb20c…a561backed Yes	10c	131.17$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.79	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event