TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$769,051

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $769,051 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes3c47,262$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.51,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes1c32,170$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3085909.2%54 W · 536 L+1.6wins0.00per pick9cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5fa…66b0backed Yes2c23,924$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes4c21,448$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.6666222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c19,553$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.22710%0 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes0c16,775$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0245511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes2c15,843$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.072,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdc…e19ebacked Yes1c15,477$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003330.3%10 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes2c15,246$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.3738010%38 W · 342 L+0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15382.6%1 W · 37 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick0cpaid+2,531.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes1c15,000$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.35249.9%52 W · 472 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes0c13,889$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.481785.6%10 W · 168 L+0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes1c12,750$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.525617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12380%0 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes0c11,500$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.538811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes0c11,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142401.7%4 W · 236 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+675.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes3c10,096$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.2246521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes3c10,000$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.475718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc509…c6afbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes1c9,475$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1542719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9df…76c1backed Yes3c8,519$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.184010%4 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-66.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c8,518$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.921,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes3c8,347$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.861,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes2c7,942$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.451410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes9c7,847$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.4457222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes9c7,613$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.0353522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea85…efe5backed Yes2c7,500$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.56214.5%9 W · 53 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes4c7,000$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31163414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes2c6,979$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.359711.3%11 W · 86 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-63%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec7e…a915backed Yes12c6,680$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.444626.1%12 W · 34 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-53%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes5c6,632$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.3531621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe11e…ff89backed Yes7c6,479$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.434610.9%5 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes6c5,864$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.6788018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x754b…a66ebacked Yes2c5,773$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.899413.8%13 W · 81 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-63.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaee4…9d92backed Yes0c5,377$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.42424.8%2 W · 40 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-50.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes4c5,144$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.351468.2%12 W · 134 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes2c5,134$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.131,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes5c4,989$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.1612216.4%20 W · 102 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes1c4,970$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.271888%15 W · 173 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+86%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes6c4,642$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.5188017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes1c4,535$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.85535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3454…333bbacked Yes2c4,461$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.057216.7%12 W · 60 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes4c4,199$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.1726211.1%29 W · 233 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes4c4,155$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.545198.3%43 W · 476 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes5c4,138$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.3617917.9%32 W · 147 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes4c4,064$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8478111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes3c3,994$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8217310.4%18 W · 155 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x274c…4824backed Yes9c3,992$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3508425%21 W · 63 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes7c3,877$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.1428025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes4c3,832$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.9958.4%8 W · 87 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes3c3,823$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.0236411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03bd…49f8backed Yes5c3,768$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c3,676$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.431,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes1c3,545$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.411822.2%4 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick9cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes3c3,539$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975598.2%46 W · 513 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes6c3,528$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.0324815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes5c3,440$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.9182714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5dd…e40cbacked Yes5c3,328$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1755817.2%10 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes2c3,315$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793844.7%18 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes0c3,174$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0116417.1%28 W · 136 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes2c3,137$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0532613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes2c3,100$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.695628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9df6…556fbacked Yes1c2,978$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.015614.3%8 W · 48 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes3c2,662$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.481609.4%15 W · 145 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-34.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xacc6…4b3bbacked Yes1c2,518$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes5c2,503$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.72808.8%7 W · 73 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-41%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes4c2,438$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9970616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d0c…f55fbacked Yes9c2,318$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.9137.7%1 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d69…01aebacked Yes1c2,295$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.373016.7%5 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-50.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba66…79d8backed Yes4c2,261$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9111519.1%22 W · 93 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes4c2,245$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.28610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes2c2,148$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484798.6%41 W · 438 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f05…2e6fbacked Yes1c2,136$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244122%9 W · 32 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes2c2,109$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5321034.8%73 W · 137 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes4c2,087$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.756429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes3c2,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.262412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes3c2,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6684616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.718424.5%45 W · 139 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes1c2,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.879811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x841a…cd4abacked Yes15c1,999$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.91812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes4c1,958$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8313116.8%22 W · 109 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+57.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0dd…f987backed Yes1c1,954$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.458915.7%14 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes2c1,850$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.461,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee4f…89f5backed Yes1c1,839$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.96378.1%3 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-36.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes7c1,799$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.03932.2%2 W · 91 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-67.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes5c1,719$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5710421.2%22 W · 82 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes4c1,701$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9225012.8%32 W · 218 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3636…34c4backed Yes1c1,607$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4437%3 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-60.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x063d…35c7backed Yes5c1,606$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.946523.1%15 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c1,604$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.162727%19 W · 253 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes5c1,604$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7630110.3%31 W · 270 L+0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes2c1,603$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.961,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes13c1,554$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.441389.4%13 W · 125 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes1c1,531$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9950828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes2c1,500$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7382711%91 W · 736 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes4c1,490$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6310015%15 W · 85 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes2c1,476$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.037828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes5c1,423$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7429113.1%38 W · 253 L-0.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04eb…1ab3backed Yes4c1,398$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8339.1%3 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-57.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.