Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa654a3a0efe7de098ace53eb8672deab913f753eeb7c9d6fcfd3a3430d862ad2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $769,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $769,051 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 47,262$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.5 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 1c | 32,170$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…66b0backed Yes | 2c | 23,924$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 4c | 21,448$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.66 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 19,553$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 71 | 0%0 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 0c | 16,775$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 15,843$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.07 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdc…e19ebacked Yes | 1c | 15,477$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 2c | 15,246$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.37 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 0cpaid | +2,531.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 15,000$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…04e4backed Yes | 0c | 13,889$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 178 | 5.6%10 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 1c | 12,750$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 0c | 11,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 3c | 10,096$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.22 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.47 | 571 | 8.2%47 W · 524 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc509…c6afbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 1c | 9,475$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.15 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9df…76c1backed Yes | 3c | 8,519$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.18 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 8,518$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 3c | 8,347$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.86 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 2c | 7,942$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.4 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 9c | 7,847$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.44 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 9c | 7,613$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.03 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea85…efe5backed Yes | 2c | 7,500$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 62 | 14.5%9 W · 53 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 4c | 7,000$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,979$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.35 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7e…a915backed Yes | 12c | 6,680$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.44 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 5c | 6,632$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.35 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11e…ff89backed Yes | 7c | 6,479$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.43 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 6c | 5,864$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.67 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…a66ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,773$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.89 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…9d92backed Yes | 0c | 5,377$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 4c | 5,144$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.35 | 146 | 8.2%12 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 5,134$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.13 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 5c | 4,989$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.16 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…53bcbacked Yes | 1c | 4,970$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 188 | 8%15 W · 173 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +86%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 6c | 4,642$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.51 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,535$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,461$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.05 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,199$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.17 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 4c | 4,155$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.54 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 5c | 4,138$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.36 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 4c | 4,064$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.84 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc589…5614backed Yes | 3c | 3,994$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.82 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed Yes | 9c | 3,992$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 7c | 3,877$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.14 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,832$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.9 | 95 | 8.4%8 W · 87 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 3c | 3,823$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.02 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03bd…49f8backed Yes | 5c | 3,768$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 3,676$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.43 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes | 1c | 3,545$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 3c | 3,539$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 559 | 8.2%46 W · 513 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 6c | 3,528$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.03 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 5c | 3,440$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.91 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dd…e40cbacked Yes | 5c | 3,328$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 2c | 3,315$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes | 0c | 3,174$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 164 | 17.1%28 W · 136 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,137$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 2c | 3,100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…556fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,978$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes | 3c | 2,662$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 160 | 9.4%15 W · 145 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc6…4b3bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,518$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 5c | 2,503$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.72 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 4c | 2,438$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0c…f55fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,318$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.9 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d69…01aebacked Yes | 1c | 2,295$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba66…79d8backed Yes | 4c | 2,261$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,245$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,148$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 479 | 8.6%41 W · 438 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f05…2e6fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,136$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 2c | 2,109$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 4c | 2,087$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x841a…cd4abacked Yes | 15c | 1,999$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,958$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dd…f987backed Yes | 1c | 1,954$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 1,850$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…89f5backed Yes | 1c | 1,839$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 7c | 1,799$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.03 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe144…487fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,719$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 104 | 21.2%22 W · 82 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes | 4c | 1,701$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed Yes | 1c | 1,607$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…35c7backed Yes | 5c | 1,606$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,604$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes | 5c | 1,604$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 301 | 10.3%31 W · 270 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,603$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 13c | 1,554$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.44 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 1c | 1,531$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,490$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 100 | 15%15 W · 85 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,476$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…7e5abacked Yes | 5c | 1,423$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 291 | 13.1%38 W · 253 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…1ab3backed Yes | 4c | 1,398$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.