Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fbd4837e709e999c3f82eb22fa68fc08c424fdb41059aa0cdf3405d06773a0d

Rebuilt 25 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 7, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $228,552

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,552 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	30,776$894 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$893.61	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	38	2.6%1 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	0cpaid	+2,531.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	12,945$493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.16	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes	1c	11,666$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.67	79	7.6%6 W · 73 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes	0c	10,665$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.33	71	0%0 W · 71 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	10,560$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.79	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6297…1302backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	0%0 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31f3…9bf3backed Yes	0c	9,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	8,532$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.03	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	5c	8,272$422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$421.86	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	5c	7,289$379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378.52	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37e7…4a56backed Yes	2c	6,569$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	6,167$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	13c	5,632$746 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$746.23	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	4c	5,518$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.47	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9f…19b7backed Yes	5c	4,641$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	18cpaid	-12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	4,279$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.35	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	3,840$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.42	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	10c	3,524$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.87	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	11c	3,442$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.15	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	1c	3,350$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.39	44	4.5%2 W · 42 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes	1c	3,046$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	241	14.1%34 W · 207 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,033$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.39	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6b…28b6backed Yes	2c	3,026$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-90%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	3,024$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.89	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	5c	2,986$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.65	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86f7…4edbbacked Yes	13c	2,880$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.05	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+83.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	5c	2,847$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.54	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	3c	2,635$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.4	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	2,630$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.25	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c3d…8d58backed Yes	9c	2,583$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.74	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes	1c	2,458$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	137	18.2%25 W · 112 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes	10c	2,447$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b6…9ff5backed Yes	4c	2,398$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.17	84	20.2%17 W · 67 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	2,148$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes	1c	2,128$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	154	35.1%54 W · 100 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	2,053$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.69	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0106…0e63backed Yes	5c	1,958$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-60%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	14c	1,924$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.78	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	1,744$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.59	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	1c	1,495$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.52	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x50a6…1c2ebacked Yes	4c	1,402$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.51	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-79%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c09…eea9backed Yes	12c	1,372$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.17	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xffd8…1a4dbacked Yes	1c	1,334$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	4.7%2 W · 41 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	1,322$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.02	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16a8…7d0cbacked Yes	9c	1,277$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	7c	1,269$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.78	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2959…bdf1backed Yes	6c	1,247$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76b4…37ebbacked Yes	5c	1,216$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.65	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe11e…ff89backed Yes	10c	1,200$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.58	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fb…3d55backed Yes	12c	1,169$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.16	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	17cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd480…ddc8backed Yes	12c	1,165$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	30cpaid	-83.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	8c	1,127$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.86	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,122$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.61	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe380…70e2backed Yes	3c	1,118$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.38	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-3.7wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	4c	1,104$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	3c	1,100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.28	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	12c	1,080$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	266	19.5%52 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes	6c	1,010$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.85	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	4c	1,009$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.27	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x294a…bbbabacked Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.83	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+210.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	999.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…3e7cbacked Yes	14c	956.99$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.64	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	-3.1wins	-0.11per pick	25cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e9a…5f9cbacked Yes	14c	843.13$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.29	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9df…76c1backed Yes	1c	839.16$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes	13c	791.84$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x010c…6134backed Yes	10c	781.47$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.12	129	14.7%19 W · 110 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	780$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.09	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4ff6…4e36backed Yes	14c	710.81$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x969c…1039backed Yes	14c	702.13$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	40	15%6 W · 34 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes	1c	700$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	342	15.8%54 W · 288 L	+20.9wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	699.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc83b…6c3bbacked Yes	12c	647.34$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	48	25%12 W · 36 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	11c	598.42$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.64	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc0b6…90a8backed Yes	6c	575.42$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.64	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes	5c	562.69$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.9	122	16.4%20 W · 102 L	+9.3wins	+0.08per pick	9cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d42…6e4cbacked Yes	4c	540.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	64	3.1%2 W · 62 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb6c…8ca8backed Yes	4c	535.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	7c	523.93$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c33…9ac6backed Yes	2c	518.52$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.19	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	31cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	3c	501.64$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06dd…9534backed Yes	9c	500$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.3	25	24%6 W · 19 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	21cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ab6…75b5backed Yes	11c	462.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0813…3bc7backed Yes	2c	457.29$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe0bb…4808backed Yes	12c	444.21$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ada…e527backed Yes	5c	413$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.33	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-76.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	3c	407.86$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.66	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcccd…1c5ebacked Yes	3c	400$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.65	45	15.6%7 W · 38 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-53.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1db5…79f1backed Yes	4c	396.13$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc7d…5511backed Yes	4c	388$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	4c	379.16$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.69	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes	13c	367.48$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.24	171	26.9%46 W · 125 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	4c	367.02$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x611b…9b3dbacked Yes	6c	345.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	+39.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56d1…83eabacked Yes	10c	300$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	11c	284.53$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cea…f265backed Yes	12c	277.13$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.45	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	13cpaid	+32.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	13c	272.56$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.18	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event