Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x872661e92a7e2914c8d225b0138e484a8e97766413e032a1fe8ab6291460a0a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $784,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $623,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $784,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 344 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed Yes | 2c | 85,116$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.44 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 11c | 54,457$6,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,148.67 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 12c | 16,747$1,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,937.63 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459c…7ebcbacked Yes | 4c | 13,065$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.96 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 12c | 12,406$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 9c | 11,817$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.97 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc94…5204backed Yes | 23c | 10,633$2,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,452.94 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 16c | 8,600$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.64 | 138 | 17.4%24 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 5c | 8,345$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.64 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…0f2ebacked No | 78c | 7,252$5,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,622.23 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…4896backed Yes | 13c | 6,678$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.98 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed Yes | 31c | 6,517$2,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,005.9 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 10c | 6,439$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.38 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 5c | 5,492$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.58 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf72…6378backed Yes | 3c | 5,433$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.42 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 4c | 5,371$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.55 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 5c | 5,350$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.6 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 11c | 5,159$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.64 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,500$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.46 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 21c | 4,274$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 18c | 4,161$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.7 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes | 7c | 4,103$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.21 | 124 | 16.9%21 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 16c | 3,982$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.2 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…3d31backed No | 78c | 3,858$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.54 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 10c | 3,849$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.82 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 12c | 3,667$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.96 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e78backed Yes | 18c | 3,579$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.72 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 14c | 3,518$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8611…9cc1backed Yes | 10c | 3,400$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 9c | 3,346$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.07 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8261…a3f1backed Yes | 14c | 3,325$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 3,238$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.95 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 7c | 3,163$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.39 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 6c | 3,130$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.19 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…c7a9backed Yes | 22c | 3,116$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf670…3cb8backed Yes | 3c | 3,100$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 13c | 3,035$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.56 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb33e…cd0abacked Yes | 2c | 3,012$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 7c | 3,001$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.28 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 25c | 3,000$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.88 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 18c | 2,588$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.59 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,577$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.4 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…748fbacked Yes | 21c | 2,575$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.13 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,440$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.38 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 18c | 2,383$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.21 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 17c | 2,340$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.16 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…1af9backed Yes | 14c | 2,314$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.94 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Yes | 5c | 2,308$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca2…20e6backed Yes | 11c | 2,308$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.22 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x074b…ffc9backed No | 79c | 2,200$1,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.8 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 14c | 2,200$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.33 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 3c | 2,162$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,035$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…2a81backed Yes | 35c | 2,028$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 13c | 2,018$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.42 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,972$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.2 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…85adbacked Yes | 18c | 1,900$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.96 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,892$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 2c | 1,883$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…71afbacked Yes | 15c | 1,822$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.91 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 9c | 1,795$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.06 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,765$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.19 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,714$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…e544backed No | 79c | 1,693$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.54 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,678$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 122 | 32.8%40 W · 82 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes | 7c | 1,597$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.69 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,595$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 1c | 1,528$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…3fb7backed Yes | 1c | 1,501$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,496$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.7 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 9c | 1,470$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 19c | 1,354$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.23 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…06bdbacked Yes | 11c | 1,348$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 74c | 1,347$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.24 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 11c | 1,327$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.2 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 1,316$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.78 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,264$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b5…11a3backed Yes | 14c | 1,263$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.55 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,236$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.59 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 40c | 1,099$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.04 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 3c | 1,092$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…85afbacked Yes | 26c | 1,074$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281 | 183 | 57.9%106 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 19c | 1,066$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.47 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x446f…8148backed No | 64c | 1,059$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f6…db6fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,051$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.94 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…95b4backed Yes | 23c | 1,023$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.06 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde99…8449backed Yes | 20c | 1,004$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…08c7backed Yes | 8c | 1,004$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.33 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a0…5963backed Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ee…c635backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.8 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…df40backed Yes | 2c | 996.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 18c | 989$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.17 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3350…2186backed Yes | 4c | 957.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4239…5dafbacked Yes | 21c | 923.28$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.55 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.