TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$784,906
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$623,432

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $784,906 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 344 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes2c85,116$1,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.4413815.9%22 W · 116 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-60.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes11c54,457$6,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,148.6763414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes12c16,747$1,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,937.6356429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x459c…7ebcbacked Yes4c13,065$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.962321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes12c12,406$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48016427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes9c11,817$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.971,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc94…5204backed Yes23c10,633$2,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,452.941233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes16c8,600$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.6413817.4%24 W · 114 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes5c8,345$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.6423819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3db2…0f2ebacked No78c7,252$5,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,622.237731.2%24 W · 53 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick26cpaid0%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4a…4896backed Yes13c6,678$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.984526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed Yes31c6,517$2,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,005.911556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes10c6,439$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.383810.5%4 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes1c6,000$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6314025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes5c5,492$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.583724.3%9 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-24.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf72…6378backed Yes3c5,433$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.42195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes4c5,371$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.5556817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes5c5,350$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.631621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes11c5,159$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.641,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes5c4,500$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.4657222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes21c4,274$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91646521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes18c4,161$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.728526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes7c4,103$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.2112416.9%21 W · 103 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+57.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes16c3,982$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.257621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf2a…3d31backed No78c3,858$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.541723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick25cpaid+24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes10c3,849$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.8214928.2%42 W · 107 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes12c3,667$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.9621213.2%28 W · 184 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e78backed Yes18c3,579$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.725641.1%23 W · 33 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes14c3,518$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51088018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8611…9cc1backed Yes10c3,400$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes9c3,346$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.0717917.9%32 W · 147 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8261…a3f1backed Yes14c3,325$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.18933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes8c3,238$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.952,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes7c3,163$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.3912216.4%20 W · 102 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes6c3,130$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.1948819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14f0…c7a9backed Yes22c3,116$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.01728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+98.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf670…3cb8backed Yes3c3,100$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.790%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes13c3,035$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.5629227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb33e…cd0abacked Yes2c3,012$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes7c3,001$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.281,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes5c3,000$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13545511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes1c3,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.419930.7%61 W · 138 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes25c3,000$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.8817628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes18c2,588$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.5953522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes5c2,577$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.428016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfe6…748fbacked Yes21c2,575$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.133461.8%21 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked Yes3c2,440$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3812424.2%30 W · 94 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick15cpaid+100.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes18c2,383$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.2188017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes17c2,340$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.1631722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcc7…1af9backed Yes14c2,314$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.943724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes5c2,308$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125875.7%5 W · 82 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-65.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca2…20e6backed Yes11c2,308$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.227251.4%37 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x074b…ffc9backed No79c2,200$1,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.83754.1%20 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes14c2,200$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.3363821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes3c2,162$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3715128.5%43 W · 108 L+0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c2,035$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.091,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc41f…2a81backed Yes35c2,028$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002516%4 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-73.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes13c2,018$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.4227316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes16c1,972$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.22116.6%14 W · 197 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1287…85adbacked Yes18c1,900$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.967448.6%36 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes2c1,892$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.797727.3%21 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+48.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes2c1,883$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7932.2%2 W · 91 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-67.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a43…71afbacked Yes15c1,822$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.911288.6%11 W · 117 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-62.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes9c1,795$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.0623019.1%44 W · 186 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes21c1,765$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.1927224.3%66 W · 206 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes2c1,714$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.627304.5%33 W · 697 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-64.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a6…e544backed No79c1,693$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.546167.2%41 W · 20 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes3c1,678$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0312232.8%40 W · 82 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes7c1,597$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.699923.2%23 W · 76 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+60.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x555c…c64dbacked Yes15c1,595$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24014332.9%47 W · 96 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes1c1,528$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517728.2%50 W · 127 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…3fb7backed Yes1c1,501$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.03911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-81.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes9c1,500$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1428633.7%29 W · 57 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes8c1,496$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.7626.5%4 W · 58 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick12cpaid+139.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes9c1,470$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes19c1,354$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.2350828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92bf…06bdbacked Yes11c1,348$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.35850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No74c1,347$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.2415844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes11c1,327$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.233231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes14c1,316$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.7876821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes17c1,264$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22026418.6%49 W · 215 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes14c1,263$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.5514233.8%48 W · 94 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes21c1,236$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.5928025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x713b…f43cbacked Yes40c1,099$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.0410536.2%38 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes3c1,092$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359626%25 W · 71 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9955…85afbacked Yes26c1,074$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28118357.9%106 W · 77 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes19c1,066$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.4750319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x446f…8148backed No64c1,059$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3811127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1f6…db6fbacked Yes13c1,051$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.943318.2%6 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa1…95b4backed Yes23c1,023$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.065920.3%12 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde99…8449backed Yes20c1,004$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001850%9 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25c2…08c7backed Yes8c1,004$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.038619.8%17 W · 69 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.3318822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45a0…5963backed Yes26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2607028.6%20 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.967826.9%21 W · 57 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ee…c635backed Yes20c1,000$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.82638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a3…df40backed Yes2c996.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3711624.1%28 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes18c989$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.1759225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3350…2186backed Yes4c957.42$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.32130%0 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4239…5dafbacked Yes21c923.28$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.552347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.