TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$544,028
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$388,131

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $544,028 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb831…892bbacked Yes0c30,035$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.617917.9%32 W · 147 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes1c19,000$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5145511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes0c15,785$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2824617.5%43 W · 203 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes1c15,122$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.731,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes3c14,774$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.091,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes0c11,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8879811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c10,841$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.84380%0 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes0c10,726$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4566222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes0c10,135$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1321220.3%43 W · 169 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+610.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe02a…2bc6backed Yes6c8,484$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.31728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-60.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc41f…2a81backed Yes2c8,082$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1552516%4 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-73.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes0c8,041$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3915128.5%43 W · 108 L+0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes1c6,589$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.842097.7%16 W · 193 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes1c6,481$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.485628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes0c5,055$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.112259.8%22 W · 203 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-79.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes1c5,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7914025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c4,808$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.961,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes1c4,720$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.451,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes5c4,363$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.0757621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes1c4,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2557222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked Yes1c3,833$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5515844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeca2…20e6backed Yes1c3,351$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.837251.4%37 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes1c3,279$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.29819.9%8 W · 73 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes1c2,980$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8842719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes19c2,873$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55016427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes1c2,831$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.49875.7%5 W · 82 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-65.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes1c2,551$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5148819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes12c2,500$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.0231621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes8c2,301$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.33724.3%9 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-24.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8aa1…95b4backed Yes3c2,160$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.985920.3%12 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes1c2,120$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5327417.5%48 W · 226 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes10c1,876$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.8978111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed Yes1c1,862$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.637913.9%11 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-38.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes1c1,847$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0951845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a43…71afbacked Yes14c1,649$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.91288.6%11 W · 117 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-62.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes1c1,600$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6431722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae8…24f3backed Yes1c1,595$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151315.4%2 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1562412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes5c1,500$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.538811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes3c1,487$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8650828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8261…a3f1backed Yes21c1,459$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.3933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes13c1,379$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.452116.6%14 W · 197 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes3c1,376$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.272,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes1c1,367$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0176821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes2c1,207$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.747727.3%21 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+48.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes7c1,190$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8988017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes6c1,143$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9324710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c1,100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.81,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes1c1,073$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1043126.2%113 W · 318 L+2.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaf2a…3d31backed Yes4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick25cpaid+24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes17c999.98$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16518822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes4c989$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9559225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf424…225cbacked Yes2c934.81$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.243023.3%7 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-45.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes2c918.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1546521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x773b…640ebacked Yes1c883.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106116.4%10 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes14c849.99$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.71,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fdf…e238backed Yes8c697.12$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.41119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdaa…fec8backed Yes5c683.19$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.895529.1%16 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No80c673$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.654675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes2c606.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.341,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes8c599.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489923.2%23 W · 76 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+60.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes4c583.17$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5988018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes17c538.3$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1134215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x34a6…e544backed No79c517.55$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.716167.2%41 W · 20 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51bf…01cbbacked Yes22c477.13$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.182714.8%4 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid+85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes22c453.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8726722.8%61 W · 206 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes7c428.45$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.267304.5%33 W · 697 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-64.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes5c408.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6728025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1380…741dbacked Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb5…f779backed Yes24c300$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7216532.7%54 W · 111 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No78c239.83$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1826167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d91…f592backed Yes11c227$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.972123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-59.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019317.6%34 W · 159 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes26c194.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016831.5%53 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d7e…5db4backed Yes24c166.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+27.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58d3…c14bbacked Yes21c150$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.51030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fcd…c5debacked Yes22c136.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306325.4%16 W · 47 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe250…c503backed No79c124.53$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c7c…8029backed Yes20c120$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ad…39c6backed Yes20c110$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2937…ccb8backed No72c105.34$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c38…a3a5backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018224.2%44 W · 138 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ad2…7e01backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274122%9 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d6b…0420backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4510129.7%30 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c33…f910backed Yes29c91.49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1210131.7%32 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes23c89.78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6521213.2%28 W · 184 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b65…e6bfbacked Yes29c89.47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9570%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4eff…98febacked Yes24c85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204327.9%12 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0c2…4302backed Yes25c80.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-67.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee66…8753backed Yes19c77.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.56322.2%14 W · 49 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62aa…94febacked Yes27c73.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes21c71.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1542312.5%53 W · 370 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x206a…94ddbacked No77c71.08$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.35955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick72cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5864…e473backed Yes22c68.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No77c61.53$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1531565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba7c…2a2abacked Yes26c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610927.5%30 W · 79 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x482d…750dbacked Yes23c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.85532.7%18 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked No72c55.08$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4210917.4%19 W · 90 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.