TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$701,370
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$487,325

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $701,370 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 393 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes0c63,261$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.9713430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes4c25,844$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.181,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes2c17,651$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.292259.8%22 W · 203 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-79.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfb5…0d6abacked Yes19c13,809$2,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,620.272250%11 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+54.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes15c10,464$1,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,573.0231621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b83…0a52backed Yes1c9,796$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.261947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+35.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes11c9,200$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.515128.5%43 W · 108 L+0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x555c…c64dbacked Yes10c9,000$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.7714332.9%47 W · 96 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes18c8,997$1,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,632.8257222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes11c8,695$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.4915136.4%55 W · 96 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc41f…2a81backed Yes26c7,671$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9602516%4 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-73.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes2c7,642$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.851,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b0b…c3dfbacked Yes4c6,960$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.690%0 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes12c6,915$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.9517628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes14c6,902$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.783724.3%9 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-24.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdaa…fec8backed Yes7c6,478$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.495529.1%16 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5f3…1fc1backed Yes1c6,260$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816224.2%15 W · 47 L-0.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes4c6,104$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.5610322.3%23 W · 80 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+59.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes11c6,068$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.8114025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes4c5,797$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.515115.7%8 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes5c5,555$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9713815.9%22 W · 116 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-60.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe02a…2bc6backed Yes24c5,436$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.16728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-60.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No58c5,395$3,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,267.8711556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes16c5,145$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.0917728.2%50 W · 127 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes6c5,115$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.9963414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes10c4,593$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.5436411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb33e…cd0abacked Yes11c4,567$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.842711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes6c4,500$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.562412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes13c4,454$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.631722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes19c4,203$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.2366222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes9c3,856$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.151,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes8c3,650$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.523819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes38c3,506$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.7421213.2%28 W · 184 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes12c3,435$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.645511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes19c3,212$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.1848819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4239…5dafbacked Yes32c3,193$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.962347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes16c3,155$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50016427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes13c3,011$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.0928016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes15c2,909$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.1588017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes4c2,811$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.871,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8261…a3f1backed Yes29c2,734$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.49933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes14c2,664$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.249919%95 W · 404 L-1.7wins0.00per pick19cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes13c2,626$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.6157621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x459c…7ebcbacked Yes30c2,603$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7802321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes2c2,427$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59819.9%8 W · 73 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd28b…6593backed Yes9c2,333$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.09714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-73%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes18c2,265$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.7722023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x713b…f43cbacked Yes8c2,250$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.4910536.2%38 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9476…28bcbacked Yes15c2,170$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.511838.1%45 W · 73 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes18c2,158$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.8628526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes1c2,143$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.72128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-76.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a03…86dcbacked No76c2,098$1,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5024365.1%28 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea7b…2004backed Yes7c2,072$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.136322.2%14 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes2c2,014$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4412429%36 W · 88 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+110.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed Yes9c1,978$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.797913.9%11 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-38.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x274c…4824backed Yes24c1,960$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.58425%21 W · 63 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No58c1,960$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.5220735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes15c1,868$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.8950828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes10c1,857$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.7776821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d3f…5e3abacked Yes11c1,849$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.2728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes11c1,802$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.4827316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb9…a2b2backed Yes14c1,766$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.35944.1%26 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a6…6558backed Yes10c1,750$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1757337%27 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes22c1,703$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37546521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x960b…9303backed Yes5c1,626$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.176021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefc8…4676backed No74c1,609$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.816532.3%21 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes10c1,504$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.6863821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaba…e07dbacked Yes3c1,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes34c1,500$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.9950913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes12c1,485$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180875.7%5 W · 82 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-65.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes14c1,477$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.1888018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes30c1,433$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.122,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes6c1,371$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.620129.4%59 W · 142 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes13c1,350$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.5928025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20d1…fe63backed Yes1c1,340$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.197821.8%17 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes25c1,259$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3192116.6%14 W · 197 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92bb…ee17backed Yes42c1,190$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-58.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3350…2186backed Yes18c1,181$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.76130%0 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e9c…9a07backed Yes15c1,168$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1755334%18 W · 35 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5285…1cc5backed Yes15c1,163$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.752725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-28.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7871…2917backed Yes9c1,162$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010829.6%32 W · 76 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca2…20e6backed Yes9c1,077$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.367251.4%37 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,070$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.982,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes2c1,062$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.973215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96f9…0c3bbacked Yes23c1,058$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.122227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x773b…640ebacked Yes9c1,025$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.726116.4%10 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes13c1,012$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.2343126.2%113 W · 318 L+2.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc1ee…c635backed Yes17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1702638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1805418.5%10 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes4c1,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.979811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes37c999.98$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.9918822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Yes23c999.01$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.555141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes16c989$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.4559225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e83…30dabacked Yes20c983.3$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009423.4%22 W · 72 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes6c965.35$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9217917.9%32 W · 147 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes6c964.66$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510216.7%17 W · 85 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde99…8449backed Yes31c960.79$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001850%9 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaacb…45d7backed Yes12c953.78$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.181540%6 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a67…00f7backed No53c932$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.046634.8%23 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+57%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…e238backed Yes20c931.82$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.86119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.