Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x377408e06e57afe5272d81636580677b27ae47be7d44d47a552c8648f3314b33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $630,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $693,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $630,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 451 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 0c | 48,282$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 13c | 9,564$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.66 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 42c | 7,489$3,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,175.9 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 38c | 7,223$2,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,748.28 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 65c | 7,152$4,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,483.52 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 63c | 6,189$3,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,282.38 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 68c | 6,068$4,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,924.84 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…2a81backed Yes | 75c | 5,784$4,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,425.63 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 48c | 5,623$2,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,907.57 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x446f…8148backed No | 32c | 5,421$1,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,744.27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 32c | 5,245$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.68 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed No | 8c | 5,000$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc447…54f5backed No | 33c | 4,733$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,543.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked No | 64c | 4,500$2,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,869.96 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…e544backed No | 38c | 4,243$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,613.19 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 3c | 4,200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.36 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x459c…7ebcbacked Yes | 30c | 4,177$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,932.41 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 43c | 3,670$1,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,086.49 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 0c | 3,667$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 92 | 32.6%30 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e78backed Yes | 62c | 3,615$2,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.7 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 66c | 3,431$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.62 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 65c | 3,400$2,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.78 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…00f7backed No | 20c | 3,354$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.16 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +57%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 14c | 3,245$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.69 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 47c | 3,125$1,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,656.12 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 59c | 3,000$1,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 55c | 2,713$1,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.34 | 138 | 17.4%24 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde99…8449backed Yes | 69c | 2,686$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.02 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…1a31backed No | 39c | 2,564$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked No | 20c | 2,406$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…b5a0backed Yes | 70c | 2,278$1,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.64 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…45d7backed Yes | 65c | 2,190$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.82 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked No | 18c | 2,158$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.97 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…e581backed No | 53c | 2,089$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.29 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae8…24f3backed No | 1c | 2,032$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed Yes | 51c | 2,015$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.85 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a03…86dcbacked No | 79c | 1,987$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,570.19 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 1,967$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.44 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 68c | 1,882$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.9 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 1,812$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.04 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed No | 15c | 1,791$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.92 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45a0…5963backed Yes | 79c | 1,734$1,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.26 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6a…7155backed Yes | 21c | 1,712$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356.8 | 100 | 13%13 W · 87 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…1af9backed Yes | 64c | 1,711$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.7 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4239…5dafbacked Yes | 80c | 1,709$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.51 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…30d5backed Yes | 77c | 1,671$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.32 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 71c | 1,640$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.4 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 73c | 1,602$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.75 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8261…a3f1backed Yes | 28c | 1,432$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc94…5204backed Yes | 36c | 1,382$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.58 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91bd…f1a1backed No | 21c | 1,329$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.2 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 11c | 1,272$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.13 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 34c | 1,253$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.99 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x466b…f89bbacked No | 2c | 1,244$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6c…0b29backed No | 4c | 1,219$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…fec8backed Yes | 71c | 1,190$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.6 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes | 73c | 1,153$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.09 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 29c | 1,150$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.98 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x952c…be27backed No | 14c | 1,115$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.97 | 68 | 22.1%15 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 54c | 1,109$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.33 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 70c | 1,021$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.24 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 36c | 999.94$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.83 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ee…c635backed Yes | 58c | 999.85$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.72 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 60c | 989$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.48 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 30c | 976.28$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.8 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 63c | 973.32$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.6 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked No | 3c | 959.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca2…20e6backed No | 15c | 953.69$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.02 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed No | 3c | 945.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 22c | 909.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.09 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b6…9ff5backed Yes | 51c | 898.01$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.46 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 44c | 893.39$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.9 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 50c | 858.38$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.67 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188c…9f26backed Yes | 63c | 798.75$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…c2a6backed Yes | 76c | 791.98$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.98 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 46c | 770.97$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.23 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2177…3856backed Yes | 63c | 763.33$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ff…0ff8backed Yes | 73c | 756.99$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.74 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6aa…132abacked No | 7c | 737.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +57%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked No | 55c | 716.14$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.85 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…4896backed No | 14c | 708.31$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.54 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x266e…17e5backed Yes | 69c | 701.47$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.94 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7045…0494backed No | 4c | 700$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…d5a6backed No | 5c | 700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 3c | 663.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5285…1cc5backed No | 21c | 662.14$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.1 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…a3a5backed Yes | 55c | 654.38$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.55 | 182 | 24.2%44 W · 138 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed Yes | 75c | 636.38$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.43 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0f…f988backed Yes | 22c | 611.41$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.9 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…95b4backed Yes | 51c | 600.18$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.08 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked No | 19c | 600$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes | 69c | 599.99$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 59c | 596.98$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.18 | 191 | 41.4%79 W · 112 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…9233backed Yes | 67c | 595.86$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.98 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 590.59$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.81 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked No | 2c | 588.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed No | 23c | 586.46$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.48 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 60c | 585.64$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.54 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed No | 16c | 585.61$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 108 | 24.1%26 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa1…0193backed Yes | 71c | 572.08$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.04 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.