TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$630,374
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$693,338

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $630,374 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 451 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb9c…072bbacked No0c48,282$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2613430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No13c9,564$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.661,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No42c7,489$3,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,175.946137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No38c7,223$2,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,748.2820735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes65c7,152$4,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,483.5231722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes63c6,189$3,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,282.3828526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes68c6,068$4,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,924.8414025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc41f…2a81backed Yes75c5,784$4,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,425.632516%4 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-73.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes48c5,623$2,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,907.5721213.2%28 W · 184 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x446f…8148backed No32c5,421$1,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,744.271127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No32c5,245$1,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,697.6856429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed No8c5,000$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38417723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc447…54f5backed No33c4,733$1,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,543.94742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+27.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked No64c4,500$2,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,869.9618123.8%43 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a6…e544backed No38c4,243$1,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,613.196167.2%41 W · 20 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No3c4,200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.3615844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x459c…7ebcbacked Yes30c4,177$1,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,932.412321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes43c3,670$1,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,086.4953522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No0c3,667$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.679232.6%30 W · 62 L-0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e78backed Yes62c3,615$2,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,373.75641.1%23 W · 33 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes66c3,431$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.6246521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes65c3,400$2,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.7831621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a67…00f7backed No20c3,354$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.166634.8%23 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+57%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked No14c3,245$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.691,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes47c3,125$1,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,656.1254122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes59c3,000$1,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,21617628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes55c2,713$1,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.3413817.4%24 W · 114 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde99…8449backed Yes69c2,686$1,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.021850%9 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4132…1a31backed No39c2,564$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.992373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+16.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked No20c2,406$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49016427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a92…b5a0backed Yes70c2,278$1,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.645240.4%21 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaacb…45d7backed Yes65c2,190$1,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.821540%6 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked No18c2,158$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.9717917.9%32 W · 147 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dab…e581backed No53c2,089$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.2910036%36 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae8…24f3backed No1c2,032$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201315.4%2 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x274c…4824backed Yes51c2,015$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.858425%21 W · 63 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a03…86dcbacked No79c1,987$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,570.194365.1%28 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes32c1,967$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.442,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes68c1,882$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.950828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes77c1,812$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.0476821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed No15c1,791$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.9214219.7%28 W · 114 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x45a0…5963backed Yes79c1,734$1,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.267028.6%20 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes21c1,712$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,356.810013%13 W · 87 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcc7…1af9backed Yes64c1,711$1,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.73724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4239…5dafbacked Yes80c1,709$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.512347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…30d5backed Yes77c1,671$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.321361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes71c1,640$1,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.438828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No73c1,602$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.7554675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8261…a3f1backed Yes28c1,432$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.04933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc94…5204backed Yes36c1,382$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.581233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91bd…f1a1backed No21c1,329$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.23650%18 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c4…8129backed No11c1,272$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.139423.4%22 W · 72 L-16.1wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-55.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes34c1,253$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.9927316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x466b…f89bbacked No2c1,244$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.834030%12 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b6c…0b29backed No4c1,219$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.555743.9%25 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdaa…fec8backed Yes71c1,190$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.65529.1%16 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes73c1,153$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.099923.2%23 W · 76 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+60.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes29c1,150$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.987826.9%21 W · 57 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed No14c1,115$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.976822.1%15 W · 53 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x713b…f43cbacked Yes54c1,109$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.3310536.2%38 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes70c1,021$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.2410840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes36c999.94$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.8318822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ee…c635backed Yes58c999.85$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.722638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes60c989$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.4859225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes30c976.28$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.863821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes63c973.32$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.628016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a80…729cbacked No3c959.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.25411.1%6 W · 48 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick15cpaid+38%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeca2…20e6backed No15c953.69$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.027251.4%37 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed No3c945.21$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.353732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+83.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes22c909.09$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.0926418.6%49 W · 215 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b6…9ff5backed Yes51c898.01$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.468420.2%17 W · 67 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes44c893.39$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.988018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes50c858.38$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.6788017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x188c…9f26backed Yes63c798.75$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.3366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d4a…c2a6backed Yes76c791.98$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.98875%6 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes46c770.97$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.2323819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2177…3856backed Yes63c763.33$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.331136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-39.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ff…0ff8backed Yes73c756.99$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.741457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6aa…132abacked No7c737.23$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.43432.4%11 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+57%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked No55c716.14$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.8578111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4a…4896backed No14c708.31$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.544526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x266e…17e5backed Yes69c701.47$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.946930.4%21 W · 48 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7045…0494backed No4c700$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710128.7%29 W · 72 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd44c…d5a6backed No5c700$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed No3c663.53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2456817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5285…1cc5backed No21c662.14$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.12725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-28.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c38…a3a5backed Yes55c654.38$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.5518224.2%44 W · 138 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed Yes75c636.38$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.4316056.9%91 W · 69 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe0f…f988backed Yes22c611.41$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.94040%16 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa1…95b4backed Yes51c600.18$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.085920.3%12 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked No19c600$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1145628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes69c599.99$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1838633.7%29 W · 57 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed Yes59c596.98$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.1819141.4%79 W · 112 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7061…9233backed Yes67c595.86$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.984639.1%18 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No56c590.59$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.8126167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked No2c588.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9610322.3%23 W · 80 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+59.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed No23c586.46$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.4825944.4%115 W · 144 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes60c585.64$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.5457621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf360…6726backed No16c585.61$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.810824.1%26 W · 82 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aa1…0193backed Yes71c572.08$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.044261.9%26 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+31.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.