TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd6aa…132a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
43
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Tweets, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 55 out of 100; worst NBA at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT3432.4%11 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+57%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$85
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.4
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+213%+$27.22
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+89%+$23.55
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.05
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.05
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.4
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$93
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.11
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.1
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.29
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.8
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.82
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.71
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+144%+$16.26
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.74
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+161.9%+$22.78
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.85
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+2,665%+$1,156.6
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.4
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-43.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Warriors vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+32.7%+$10.45
Raptors vs. Nuggetsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.6
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.4
Hawks vs. Rocketsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.5
Warriors vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$9.9
All 5 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+149%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyesbacked TCU Horned Frogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+149%+$20.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$6.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.