Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef4e2a882d8f7d8b94deeba438655d4194a9dd148af322a6aa10817f784d3c37

Rebuilt 26 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $776,671
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $443,641

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $776,671 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	0c	55,555$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.55	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	25,191$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370.96	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	0c	21,585$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.7	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4f2…0812backed Yes	0c	21,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	3c	16,353$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$529.61	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	15,256$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.96	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc92e…2d75backed Yes	6c	15,071$890 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$890.45	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	1c	14,145$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.9	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	9c	12,832$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	7c	11,500$844 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$843.5	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6aa…132abacked Yes	1c	10,500$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	+2.7wins	+0.08per pick	24cpaid	+57%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	1c	10,000$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.52	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	6c	9,497$551 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550.98	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	9,386$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.18	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	9,043$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.12	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	1c	8,373$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.44	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68f6…f3d6backed Yes	3c	8,300$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.3	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes	1c	7,123$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.28	119	6.7%8 W · 111 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	6,976$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.3	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	11c	6,839$770 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$769.87	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes	2c	6,573$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.63	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+5.1wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	1c	6,538$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.58	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	6c	5,868$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.16	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	1c	5,573$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.06	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	3c	5,533$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	9c	5,255$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$474.55	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45c9…8c53backed Yes	1c	5,007$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	0c	5,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	2c	5,000$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	2c	4,673$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	5c	4,633$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.19	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	4,251$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.31	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,242$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.97	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes	7c	4,114$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.93	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x98dc…6ae4backed Yes	1c	3,779$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.92	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+149.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbeab…d961backed Yes	2c	3,623$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.98	148	29.1%43 W · 105 L	+6.6wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc451…958cbacked Yes	15c	3,587$536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$536	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc9…17acbacked Yes	0c	3,543$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes	1c	3,527$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.81	143	8.4%12 W · 131 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3dd…ec60backed Yes	1c	3,250$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	0c	3,149$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes	5c	3,003$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.69	164	27.4%45 W · 119 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	2c	3,000$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.56	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	8c	2,997$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.65	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	3c	2,798$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	2,786$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.91	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53d8…8082backed Yes	3c	2,715$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.73	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes	3c	2,645$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.85	264	18.6%49 W · 215 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	3c	2,642$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.8	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes	1c	2,580$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.74	241	14.1%34 W · 207 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	8c	2,499$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.91	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d1…4b1cbacked Yes	8c	2,499$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.3	72	15.3%11 W · 61 L	-3.6wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	4c	2,492$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.06	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf8e…2f94backed Yes	3c	2,400$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.5	113	20.4%23 W · 90 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	12c	2,126$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.34	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	3c	2,101$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.41	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	2,100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	2c	2,099$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.11	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	10c	2,087$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bc7…867bbacked Yes	3c	2,043$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	5c	2,006$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.03	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x25e3…0afdbacked Yes	8c	1,980$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.34per pick	16cpaid	+112.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes	1c	1,896$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.52	332	31%103 W · 229 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	2c	1,824$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.62	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b57…71d6backed Yes	4c	1,786$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	3c	1,732$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	1,720$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.42	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	1,610$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.36	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	1,566$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes	10c	1,551$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	51	41.2%21 W · 30 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf993…cd9dbacked Yes	1c	1,550$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	48	50%24 W · 24 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08f1…9a02backed Yes	4c	1,495$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	4c	1,407$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.99	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd354…4d78backed Yes	7c	1,378$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.91	59	18.6%11 W · 48 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	18c	1,377$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	3c	1,365$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.11	118	5.9%7 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf29a…bcbdbacked Yes	7c	1,336$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	+113.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	7c	1,320$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.81	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes	2c	1,252$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.2	135	11.9%16 W · 119 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbc6…c899backed Yes	8c	1,196$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	1,118$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.16	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes	16c	1,085$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.23	114	30.7%35 W · 79 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	4c	1,060$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.05	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes	2c	1,048$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.22	192	29.2%56 W · 136 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb603…58febacked Yes	5c	1,013$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.45	36	27.8%10 W · 26 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	15c	1,000$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.6	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf48…136dbacked Yes	5c	1,000$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes	5c	996.76$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.75	121	6.6%8 W · 113 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes	2c	954.63$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.27	71	26.8%19 W · 52 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5632…748dbacked Yes	4c	940.49$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.61	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc793…02a9backed Yes	1c	931.82$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	7c	913.22$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.11	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcdfd…8b51backed Yes	12c	901$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.71	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe953…a4f9backed Yes	7c	900.07$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.48	93	30.1%28 W · 65 L	+4.8wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	10c	900$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.89	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d8…9e28backed Yes	23c	879$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f4e…a12fbacked Yes	12c	864.8$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	29	24.1%7 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-36%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc514…39dbbacked Yes	2c	837.69$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.25	46	6.5%3 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe43d…3978backed Yes	3c	834.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.73	200	25%50 W · 150 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd936…8318backed Yes	5c	827.05$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.7	75	28%21 W · 54 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event