Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd43e0ccd024abad71ae75cb626f45c8a24d0b7e859c30b332ff4af36a52ef075

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $476,709
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $217,179

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $476,709 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	0c	75,150$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.4	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	1c	31,377$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.71	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48c5…89f3backed Yes	0c	15,206$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.41	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	0c	15,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	0c	13,484$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.28	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	7c	11,100$803 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$803.3	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	6c	5,500$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.45	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	5,374$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.32	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	0c	5,326$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.23	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7dc…b33dbacked Yes	7c	5,236$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.58	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	4,895$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	4,430$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.57	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	4c	4,326$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.53	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	4,242$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.26	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	2c	4,100$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.4	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	1c	3,450$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.9	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	11c	3,307$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.83	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	3,095$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.19	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.71	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	6c	2,931$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	12c	2,918$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.21	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec9…5f0dbacked Yes	1c	2,410$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-91%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	2,116$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.83	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	18c	2,040$367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.2	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	3c	2,000$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes	2c	1,999$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.13	119	6.7%8 W · 111 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98dc…6ae4backed Yes	19c	1,985$367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.4	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+149.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes	10c	1,917$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	101	25.7%26 W · 75 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	16c	1,898$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.04	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b4…055ebacked Yes	1c	1,684$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0aea…8951backed Yes	19c	1,621$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.32	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	1c	1,554$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.68	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc451…958cbacked Yes	1c	1,380$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes	3c	1,217$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.19	192	29.2%56 W · 136 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd8…1a4dbacked Yes	2c	1,138$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	4.7%2 W · 41 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	3c	1,060$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.92	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24da…02c6backed Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	74	29.7%22 W · 52 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	3c	964$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.78	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	3c	861.59$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.39	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes	9c	852.31$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.8	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	8c	820$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.7	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	3c	812.88$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.47	118	5.9%7 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1e…f384backed Yes	13c	797.66$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	9c	774.99$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.6	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	18c	759$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.62	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8086…d0b0backed Yes	18c	757.86$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.41	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca6…964bbacked Yes	3c	756$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.81	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes	18c	740.15$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.23	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes	3c	700$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	140	26.4%37 W · 103 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e99…72a0backed Yes	7c	682.22$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	145	7.6%11 W · 134 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40d7…1218backed Yes	3c	676.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.25	160	13.1%21 W · 139 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	2c	675.22$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.89	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	3c	641.23$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.11	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	4c	640.72$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	5c	633.98$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.24	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a6…6991backed Yes	3c	611.34$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	78	16.7%13 W · 65 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70be…044dbacked Yes	11c	585.26$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.38	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6160…9767backed Yes	8c	547.24$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	70	28.6%20 W · 50 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc793…02a9backed Yes	3c	501.83$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf60…c978backed Yes	4c	470$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.75	92	13%12 W · 80 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65fc…beacbacked Yes	3c	459.55$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	124	16.9%21 W · 103 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9936…c3eebacked Yes	15c	403.77$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.56	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	16c	400$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37bd…afd5backed Yes	16c	395.14$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.22	69	17.4%12 W · 57 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	394.32$315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.86	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	11c	358.33$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	5c	347.5$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	16c	300$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45fb…f9c0backed Yes	12c	299.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40d7…e563backed Yes	17c	292.27$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.79	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c5e…fa88backed Yes	19c	290.99$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.3	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2280…4ef5backed Yes	20c	251$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	82	15.9%13 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fcb…f083backed Yes	18c	250$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f9f…0ad6backed Yes	18c	226.64$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.79	86	9.3%8 W · 78 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5853…144dbacked Yes	10c	224.28$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.36	42	19%8 W · 34 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-21%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x083b…3decbacked Yes	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.16	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.0wins	-0.12per pick	18cpaid	-91.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	173	24.3%42 W · 131 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf64d…b164backed Yes	17c	200$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes	17c	199.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	442	27.4%121 W · 321 L	-21.9wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdadf…8034backed Yes	19c	199.99$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-3.9wins	-0.13per pick	20cpaid	-63.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4602…b575backed Yes	14c	193.79$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.18	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8bb…f9c0backed Yes	16c	191.22$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.6	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+228.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	11c	189.37$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.48	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes	17c	183.4$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.18	168	31.5%53 W · 115 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fdc…2e26backed Yes	6c	180$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf49f…2661backed Yes	9c	166.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d13…b89abacked Yes	18c	153$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.54	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf057…a931backed Yes	18c	153$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.54	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	20cpaid	-76.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…8046backed Yes	19c	150.52$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.19	53	28.3%15 W · 38 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde98…b6cebacked Yes	20c	150$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-67%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf21c…6934backed Yes	19c	149.67$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	56	26.8%15 W · 41 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9364…01cfbacked Yes	17c	146.48$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.9	34	23.5%8 W · 26 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…d94bbacked Yes	18c	138.89$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0319…4120backed Yes	21c	134.67$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Yes	9c	134.31$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.09	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-67.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f5e…343cbacked Yes	20c	125$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ff5…3fd6backed Yes	19c	123.16$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.52	110	17.3%19 W · 91 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event