Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77e9a762636b1ca81032a0e4132a21b824740259cd227edaaf5cb5fbfeeaf282

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $480,119
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $286,930

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $480,119 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	35,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	25,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	0c	20,617$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.31	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	11,365$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.71	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7a4…8229backed Yes	1c	9,148$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.94	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	10c	8,489$820 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$820.15	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	6c	8,476$482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$481.96	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	8,074$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	7,930$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	6,897$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.18	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	6,510$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.72	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	3c	6,000$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.01	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	17c	6,000$1,041 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,041.45	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	167	16.2%27 W · 140 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf272…c118backed Yes	1c	4,941$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.31	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	4,252$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.32	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x620d…9f02backed Yes	8c	4,050$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.3	58	24.1%14 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	5c	4,000$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.06	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	10c	3,826$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.48	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	3,535$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.08	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	0c	3,510$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.84	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	6c	3,480$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.69	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	6c	3,200$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.5	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	3,198$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	0c	3,175$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.46	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	4c	3,135$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.2	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed No	79c	2,815$2,232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$582.63	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ce…7b3cbacked Yes	0c	2,676$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-86.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	10c	2,510$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes	1c	2,434$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	154	35.1%54 W · 100 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	2,425$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.27	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x068d…70d3backed Yes	1c	2,400$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.8	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes	2c	2,241$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.54	119	6.7%8 W · 111 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	3c	2,050$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.15	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	4c	2,000$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	1c	1,879$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.27	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98dc…6ae4backed Yes	20c	1,860$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.91	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+149.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08f1…9a02backed Yes	1c	1,849$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	1,750$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.88	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	16c	1,732$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.46	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	23c	1,731$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc451…958cbacked Yes	2c	1,636$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	1,505$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.47	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	5c	1,492$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.57	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	18c	1,275$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.73	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	8c	1,250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	1c	1,224$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.63	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	1,200$960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	4c	1,167$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.82	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	2c	1,158$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.84	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	5c	1,149$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.27	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	5c	1,121$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.2	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	4c	1,050$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.95	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb845…a589backed Yes	18c	1,020$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.6	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	1,002$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.01	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	3c	1,000$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x970e…bc18backed Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	3c	999.99$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.2	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	8c	935.98$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.45	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf06d…26f7backed Yes	7c	930$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.28	110	11.8%13 W · 97 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes	3c	873.16$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.16	102	16.7%17 W · 85 L	+6.7wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	850$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.82	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes	19c	847.06$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.8	124	16.9%21 W · 103 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+57.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes	7c	838.15$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.41	192	29.2%56 W · 136 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24da…02c6backed Yes	3c	807.77$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.01	74	29.7%22 W · 52 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	5c	800$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.3	118	5.9%7 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9936…c3eebacked Yes	19c	775.31$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.11	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes	1c	755.04$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	118	11%13 W · 105 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	16c	700$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa323…e0eebacked Yes	18c	700$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	60	15%9 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	8c	686.82$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.98	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa471…8b84backed Yes	13c	667.83$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.83	114	24.6%28 W · 86 L	+5.0wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bba…7774backed Yes	4c	648.38$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.97	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b19…ca35backed Yes	16c	630$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	61	29.5%18 W · 43 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde98…b6cebacked Yes	19c	559.25$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.57	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-67%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5a6…6991backed Yes	9c	548.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	78	16.7%13 W · 65 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2280…4ef5backed Yes	18c	545.59$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	82	15.9%13 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	17c	531.11$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.8	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	-9.6wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes	17c	513.03$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.35	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7500…12bdbacked Yes	22c	510.36$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb0…a422backed Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	168	14.9%25 W · 143 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	12c	500$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.25	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64a3…450abacked No	77c	500$385 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115	50	68%34 W · 16 L	+6.0wins	+0.12per pick	56cpaid	+27.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	3c	500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa661…4c55backed Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6173…d511backed Yes	15c	500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf60…c978backed Yes	9c	460.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	92	13%12 W · 80 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ea…c5babacked Yes	8c	440$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.2	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6160…9767backed Yes	12c	423.58$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	70	28.6%20 W · 50 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	6c	420.91$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	21c	400$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x185a…3137backed Yes	22c	400$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked Yes	14c	400$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.5	173	24.3%42 W · 131 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	18c	399.88$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.62	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1169…d622backed Yes	8c	395.26$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.29	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	8c	381.54$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.52	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No	79c	379.2$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.28	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a28…1df7backed Yes	4c	375$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	180	24.4%44 W · 136 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+28.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37bd…afd5backed Yes	16c	366.4$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.62	69	17.4%12 W · 57 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event