Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9100fa24ed1ed1bff37d33e25679621c2c174531419c3561d817e1300182c96f

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $310,009
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $121,270

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $310,009 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	1c	33,182$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.35	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	0c	26,930$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.07	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	14,532$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.06	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	9c	7,100$642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$642	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	4c	6,000$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	8c	5,403$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.83	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	5,320$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.23	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	1c	4,900$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.1	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	4,277$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	4,214$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.98	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes	1c	3,823$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.71	119	6.7%8 W · 111 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	3,401$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.27	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	2c	3,325$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.31	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,085$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.7	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	10c	2,710$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.03	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	16c	2,285$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.41	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	2,189$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	1c	2,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98dc…6ae4backed Yes	16c	1,999$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.61	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+149.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a6…6991backed Yes	1c	1,730$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	78	16.7%13 W · 65 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	1c	1,600$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	1,366$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.37	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	1,324$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.46	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	1,317$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.01	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes	2c	1,115$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.34	192	29.2%56 W · 136 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	3c	1,111$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	6c	1,103$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.15	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e99…72a0backed Yes	5c	1,071$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	145	7.6%11 W · 134 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	1,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.16	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	3c	719$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.29	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	7c	677.59$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.25	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6160…9767backed Yes	5c	617.8$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	70	28.6%20 W · 50 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	7c	605.24$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.57	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3783…fba3backed Yes	13c	599.99$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	14c	513.67$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.22	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes	3c	499.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	137	13.1%18 W · 119 L	+6.6wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+68.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	7c	439.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.22	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	12c	399.98$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33dc…5051backed Yes	14c	391.71$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.84	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+11%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	10c	365.29$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.53	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85b7…b050backed Yes	7c	341.55$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.15per pick	30cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37bd…afd5backed Yes	16c	320.6$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.3	69	17.4%12 W · 57 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	14c	301.45$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.19	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5312…9e9bbacked Yes	3c	300$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.16	53	22.6%12 W · 41 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+40.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	7c	300$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.1	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e9e…7883backed Yes	13c	300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40d7…e563backed Yes	13c	291.01$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.74	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes	16c	235.27$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.64	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9936…c3eebacked Yes	13c	221.12$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.06	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	14c	220$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4602…b575backed Yes	11c	209.5$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.05	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	173	24.3%42 W · 131 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45fb…f9c0backed Yes	8c	200$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.6	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf64d…b164backed Yes	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x083b…3decbacked Yes	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.0wins	-0.12per pick	18cpaid	-91.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdadf…8034backed Yes	19c	200$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-3.9wins	-0.13per pick	20cpaid	-63.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes	13c	199.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	168	31.5%53 W · 115 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes	14c	199.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	442	27.4%121 W · 321 L	-21.9wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb08a…d41abacked Yes	14c	195.86$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.42	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes	8c	188.71$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	112	24.1%27 W · 85 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0319…4120backed Yes	15c	184.11$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf21c…6934backed Yes	16c	178.6$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	56	26.8%15 W · 41 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d13…b89abacked Yes	14c	177.58$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.86	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…d94bbacked Yes	15c	166.91$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…8046backed Yes	15c	165.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.16	53	28.3%15 W · 38 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x951a…6866backed Yes	14c	137.1$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.19	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+97%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ff5…3fd6backed Yes	16c	131.6$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.87	110	17.3%19 W · 91 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	15c	124.18$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.17	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40d7…1218backed Yes	16c	115.13$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.82	160	13.1%21 W · 139 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9439…9d6fbacked Yes	16c	114.5$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.32	63	44.4%28 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb621…0eb4backed Yes	16c	113.75$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x258e…b6b9backed Yes	15c	109.96$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.58	20	25%5 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	11c	109.09$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0c…b1b3backed Yes	16c	104.12$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.66	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b55…318fbacked Yes	14c	100.54$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.08	111	14.4%16 W · 95 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e50…98f0backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	330	27.9%92 W · 238 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd969…b9b9backed Yes	13c	99.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	127	20.5%26 W · 101 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8196…0954backed Yes	16c	91.6$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.66	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc324…3211backed Yes	16c	85.88$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.74	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1919…8f92backed Yes	14c	73.16$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.04	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b33…6abcbacked Yes	16c	68.75$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes	20c	57.25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.45	135	11.9%16 W · 119 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event