Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc07048c39ab974a9b9dbb92f0c2da02d8e787858f04bb3cd00c6b47c13b42449

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $305,056
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $149,580

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $305,056 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	41,784$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.42	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	28,033$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.03	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	5c	8,546$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.19	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	9c	5,906$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.74	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	7c	5,300$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	1c	4,700$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.2	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	4,465$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.86	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	0c	4,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,858$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.34	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	1c	3,857$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.84	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	3,049$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.86	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	0c	3,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	9c	2,964$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.72	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	15c	2,387$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.14	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1e…f384backed Yes	6c	1,795$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	10c	1,764$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.57	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	2c	1,595$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	1,530$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	8c	1,310$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.54	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9e…7883backed Yes	10c	1,080$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.27	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7639…cbddbacked Yes	1c	1,058$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes	2c	956.66$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.31	192	29.2%56 W · 136 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9901…5815backed Yes	3c	850$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.6	45	31.1%14 W · 31 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e34…a300backed Yes	11c	596.38$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.48	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-30%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	5c	580$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.4	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33dc…5051backed Yes	10c	546$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.6	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+11%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98dc…6ae4backed Yes	12c	501.6$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.19	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+149.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37bd…afd5backed Yes	14c	438.39$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.37	69	17.4%12 W · 57 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	7c	400$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…4cc5backed Yes	6c	333.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-80.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	6c	300.29$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.97	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45fb…f9c0backed Yes	8c	290.9$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.48	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40d7…e563backed Yes	9c	237.21$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.72	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9983…b628backed Yes	9c	201.36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.18	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	168	31.5%53 W · 115 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked Yes	7c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	173	24.3%42 W · 131 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	427	19.2%82 W · 345 L	+23.3wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf64d…b164backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	13c	193.47$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.15	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d13…b89abacked Yes	12c	190$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	10c	190$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x951a…6866backed Yes	9c	161.6$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.54	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+97%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes	7c	160$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	112	24.1%27 W · 85 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6160…9767backed Yes	10c	160$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	70	28.6%20 W · 50 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1d…9529backed Yes	12c	152.3$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.28	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	8c	147.11$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.77	77	27.3%21 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+48.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ff5…3fd6backed Yes	11c	122.07$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.43	110	17.3%19 W · 91 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	9c	112.93$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.16	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4577…1b15backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40d7…1218backed Yes	14c	89.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	160	13.1%21 W · 139 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event