Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0400f3cacf95fda2f45792bfaadb3c926b975b4d72e8632ad15ba6ab940466d4

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $509,602
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $287,821

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $509,602 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 232 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	35,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	4c	19,245$739 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$739.13	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	15,171$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.07	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes	0c	15,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	246	17.5%43 W · 203 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	6c	10,508$640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$639.67	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	2c	10,486$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.12	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	5c	9,000$422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422.15	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	0c	7,777$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.33	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	17c	6,000$1,037 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,036.99	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	5,923$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.95	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	5,460$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.87	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	12c	5,455$651 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$651.46	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	1c	5,006$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.91	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	17c	4,833$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	3c	4,707$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.96	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	4c	4,644$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.62	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf272…c118backed Yes	5c	4,420$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	4,321$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.94	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes	1c	4,287$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.48	119	6.7%8 W · 111 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,267$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.68	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes	5c	4,037$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.68	115	12.2%14 W · 101 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	14c	3,600$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494.76	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	1c	3,571$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.17	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	3,433$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.52	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98dc…6ae4backed Yes	17c	3,388$566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$566.2	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+149.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa43…d992backed Yes	0c	3,321$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.79	134	8.2%11 W · 123 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1922…3dabbacked Yes	19c	3,154$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	+11%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	3c	2,733$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.65	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	7c	2,555$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.48	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	4c	2,502$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.57	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	4c	2,500$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	12c	2,500$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.23	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48c5…89f3backed Yes	2c	2,283$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.09	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	2,000$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.6	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	2c	1,954$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.37	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	8c	1,947$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.62	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	3c	1,938$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.12	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	14c	1,915$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.17	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	2c	1,829$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.93	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	6c	1,727$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	3c	1,725$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.17	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc451…958cbacked Yes	3c	1,708$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	4c	1,700$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	3c	1,676$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.33	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	16c	1,573$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	1,488$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.26	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	6c	1,443$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.6	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	4c	1,400$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.38	245	24.9%61 W · 184 L	-13.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-45%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2dbb…28c0backed Yes	4c	1,314$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	2c	1,306$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.02	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b19…ca35backed Yes	12c	1,287$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.52	61	29.5%18 W · 43 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,256$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.45	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	1,193$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.04	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	1,120$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.05	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	5c	1,110$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	4c	1,099$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.93	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	2c	1,057$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.36	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	15c	1,048$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.98	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	8c	1,000$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	17c	1,000$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	6c	981.43$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.39	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	10c	976.24$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.19	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08f1…9a02backed Yes	5c	975.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes	15c	913.11$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.46	124	16.9%21 W · 103 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+57.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc55…6f77backed Yes	4c	900$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	7c	893.45$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.02	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a86…9679backed Yes	19c	883.46$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes	4c	852.89$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.68	137	13.1%18 W · 119 L	+6.6wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+68.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	2c	834.27$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.57	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde98…b6cebacked Yes	14c	810.93$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.97	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-67%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes	5c	810.32$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	118	11%13 W · 105 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	4c	801.23$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.05	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	12c	784.48$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.23	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes	18c	770.62$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.68	101	25.7%26 W · 75 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	18c	725.34$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.76	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	-9.6wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	9c	718.8$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.25	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa323…e0eebacked Yes	19c	699.99$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133	60	15%9 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes	10c	699.72$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	4c	695.25$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.05	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	17c	671.15$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.03	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	3c	647.92$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.31	118	5.9%7 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	9c	640$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.95	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	16c	617.14$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.5	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes	3c	614.85$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.15	192	29.2%56 W · 136 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	2c	600$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.65	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e9e…7883backed Yes	15c	600$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	10c	591.63$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.22	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9936…c3eebacked Yes	17c	579.16$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.54	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	15c	561$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.15	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	4c	547.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.97	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…3684backed Yes	18c	544.46$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.45	43	27.9%12 W · 31 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb015…42c3backed Yes	5c	516.19$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.94	71	14.1%10 W · 61 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+67.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7187…4859backed Yes	14c	512.55$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.77	233	14.2%33 W · 200 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdd0…aa04backed Yes	18c	500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6173…d511backed Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8268…6146backed Yes	13c	500$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+318.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11d1…0b41backed Yes	11c	499.99$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	76	10.5%8 W · 68 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event