TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$276,490
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$319,722

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,490 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 283 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No38c11,340$4,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,343.6756429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes60c6,171$3,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,487.4421614.8%32 W · 184 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No4c4,894$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.0435024%84 W · 266 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes49c4,500$2,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,308.8846521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No21c4,484$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.1163414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked No0c3,700$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.512424.2%30 W · 94 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick15cpaid+100.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed No4c3,000$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1117216.7%12 W · 60 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed No50c2,952$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,488.0817631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes48c2,483$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.428526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No15c2,356$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.329711.3%11 W · 86 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-63%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes52c2,308$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.7554122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5808…0b74backed Yes39c2,145$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,302.63928.2%11 W · 28 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked No59c1,934$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.8215164.9%98 W · 53 L+10.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No54c1,878$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.8431565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf360…6726backed Yes77c1,765$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39810824.1%26 W · 82 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes72c1,741$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.8676821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No51c1,727$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.3620735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed No25c1,686$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.3634425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes54c1,677$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.3153522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4ae…a3efbacked Yes45c1,611$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893.633036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes48c1,401$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.0348819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes63c1,250$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.699923.2%23 W · 76 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+60.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed No3c1,225$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4719726.9%53 W · 144 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes49c1,166$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.9417628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6aa…132abacked No3c1,166$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.853432.4%11 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+57%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No63c1,130$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.1559225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb036…5c79backed No3c1,124$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.732245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No35c1,079$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.221,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No31c994.68$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.0546137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…afc0backed Yes59c984.96$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed No52c962.66$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.3338828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes47c915.89$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.9710125.7%26 W · 75 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked No50c885.8$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44428025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed No26c857.56$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.9711512.2%14 W · 101 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a0…b9eebacked No59c835.27$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.812846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+38.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x577c…c836backed Yes73c800.55$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.81225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-52.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes41c787.28$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.441230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes41c751.68$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.781,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x746a…41e9backed Yes35c729.57$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.71450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+46.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No59c713.84$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.4126167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4982…fe01backed Yes60c701.8$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.3611529.6%34 W · 81 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96f9…0c3bbacked Yes40c689.57$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.772227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No3c635.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1712216.4%20 W · 102 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x45a0…5963backed Yes79c628.67$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.47028.6%20 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26a4…5593backed Yes61c626.78$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.75540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-42.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdaa…fec8backed Yes46c569.21$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.675529.1%16 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No16c561$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5250319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9209…b4d5backed Yes50c557.08$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.269036.7%33 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes40c523.27$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.5718321.9%40 W · 143 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e9c…9a07backed Yes69c493.41$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.365334%18 W · 35 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2749…06edbacked Yes58c476.16$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.367432.4%24 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes76c471.32$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.1331722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce0…35d3backed No4c459.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.29250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed No24c431.98$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3611725.6%30 W · 87 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x42a0…3762backed No8c428$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.369442.6%40 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30d7…59c1backed Yes45c427.68$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.538922.5%20 W · 69 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0431…fcb4backed No3c426.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7250%0 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes34c417.51$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.941,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1af8…f71dbacked No38c416.18$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.86520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-48.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ee…c635backed Yes66c401.98$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.522638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes71c393.87$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.229420.2%19 W · 75 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes44c376.45$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.8128016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes38c373.43$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.7834833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe653…cb18backed No21c365.68$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.232729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-52.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x48e7…1b38backed Yes38c361.78$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.873938.5%15 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc13…c991backed Yes50c360.07$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.7616124.2%39 W · 122 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes49c350$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.55418.5%10 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36f4…7518backed Yes55c349.9$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.996930.4%21 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes65c347.45$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.2210840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a92…b5a0backed Yes46c337.03$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.555240.4%21 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes46c331.78$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.9725944.4%115 W · 144 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No51c329.71$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.3716056.9%91 W · 69 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes69c329.5$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.1432529.2%95 W · 230 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes37c326.7$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.1788018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7061…9233backed Yes39c314.86$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.954639.1%18 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd15a…80dbbacked Yes75c314.28$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.732373.9%17 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick71cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eed…2050backed Yes77c300.07$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0810629.2%31 W · 75 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes70c300$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9012332.5%40 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf0a…08e8backed Yes37c299.99$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.991662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes46c297$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.18633.7%29 W · 57 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes41c296.08$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.9757621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a03…d5cebacked No65c287.79$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.961729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf096…28a8backed Yes38c285.62$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.1210530.5%32 W · 73 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick29cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed No12c273.6$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8314219.7%28 W · 114 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes34c273.53$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.1146521.3%99 W · 366 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes48c259.97$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.5988017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes36c257.66$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.952,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa471…8b84backed Yes36c257.19$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.6411424.6%28 W · 86 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc164…efb9backed Yes36c256.85$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.28337.3%31 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2194…3a90backed Yes46c254.02$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.1111826.3%31 W · 87 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No39c242.51$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6726461.7%163 W · 101 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes40c235$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1417022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes51c224.15$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.579627.1%26 W · 70 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked Yes36c220$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.825127.1%68 W · 183 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f31…44edbacked Yes37c217.5$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.012231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dcd…74c6backed No49c212.87$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.34633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fb6…008fbacked Yes43c212.1$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.92142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes58c212$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.0411918.5%22 W · 97 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes58c207.25$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.5143126.2%113 W · 318 L+2.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x587d…e8cdbacked Yes46c205.65$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.054119.5%8 W · 33 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.