Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x837d25cb4aa2852b7e9aacc27dc43665d1f293909e10b5a0a0be43fc505afee5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $437,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $310,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $437,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 2c | 29,776$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.48 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 2c | 21,537$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.27 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 16,231$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.26 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed Yes | 1c | 11,775$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.95 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 2c | 8,980$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.98 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 5c | 8,858$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.92 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 3c | 5,415$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.66 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 4c | 5,209$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.59 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,646$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.15 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…1300backed Yes | 2c | 4,441$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 1c | 4,052$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes | 3c | 3,939$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.55 | 216 | 14.8%32 W · 184 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…600cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,721$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2a…d39ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,524$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…2c4dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,501$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 3c | 3,226$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,156$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 4c | 3,064$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.76 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,016$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.36 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 2c | 3,016$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 2,937$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 1c | 2,913$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,911$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 559 | 8.2%46 W · 513 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 4c | 2,879$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.22 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,867$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.19 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,864$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 1c | 2,861$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be8…e44fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,681$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,662$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c33…dab9backed Yes | 3c | 2,597$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…befcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,595$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…71afbacked Yes | 2c | 2,550$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,529$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 3c | 2,525$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…df40backed Yes | 1c | 2,394$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,237$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 9c | 2,193$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.7 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0dd…19eabacked Yes | 1c | 2,183$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 1c | 2,148$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,880$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 1c | 1,855$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…9662backed Yes | 1c | 1,801$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 6c | 1,725$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.81 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 2c | 1,625$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…8229backed Yes | 2c | 1,517$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 177 | 22.6%40 W · 137 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,477$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 68 | 8.8%6 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,446$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 1,446$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0efa…51fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,340$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b7…227bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,308$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.79 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26f0…1d60backed Yes | 3c | 1,302$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746a…41e9backed Yes | 3c | 1,283$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 5c | 1,273$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a03…d5cebacked Yes | 3c | 1,254$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a7…d045backed Yes | 2c | 1,174$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 5c | 1,091$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 3c | 1,079$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,068$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.37 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 1,059$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 1c | 1,045$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 1c | 1,026$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…a567backed Yes | 1c | 1,008$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 4c | 1,007$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 182 | 4.4%8 W · 174 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 6c | 988.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 1c | 985.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 2c | 970.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 937.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…d5b4backed Yes | 1c | 877.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9645…e2d2backed Yes | 4c | 875.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…b9aebacked Yes | 1c | 858.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b6f9backed Yes | 1c | 828.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…3762backed Yes | 1c | 803.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…1af9backed Yes | 2c | 747.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…39dbbacked Yes | 3c | 730.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 46 | 6.5%3 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc194…c49cbacked Yes | 2c | 729.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f1…d1bfbacked Yes | 3c | 726.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…0ed2backed Yes | 3c | 693.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 692.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 3c | 677.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…e8cebacked Yes | 5c | 664.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…3cb6backed Yes | 2c | 656.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 4c | 645.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 243 | 26.7%65 W · 178 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…2a81backed Yes | 7c | 644.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes | 3c | 624.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dda…6ec7backed Yes | 5c | 564.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.26per pick | 32cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe2…58babacked Yes | 4c | 549.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 5c | 547.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 50 | 6%3 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe924…e6a7backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…984bbacked Yes | 4c | 499.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 5c | 478.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614f…8d07backed Yes | 5c | 395.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142c…316bbacked Yes | 3c | 382.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…6587backed Yes | 3c | 378.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 470 | 32.6%153 W · 317 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9d…f0b7backed Yes | 4c | 350.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 5c | 349.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 12cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 329.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 398 | 6.8%27 W · 371 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa5…e581backed Yes | 6c | 319.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 10c | 277.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.