TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$440,932
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$351,131

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $440,932 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes7c19,463$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.2554122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes0c12,282$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3717917.9%32 W · 147 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes3c8,336$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.6817723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes9c6,734$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.1834425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes3c5,546$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.621,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012429%36 W · 88 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+110.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes8c4,804$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.851,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes12c4,680$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.411,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes2c4,632$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4166222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes9c3,807$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.095628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe653…cb18backed Yes9c3,221$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.762729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-52.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf670…3cb8backed Yes4c3,101$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.1490%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes4c3,098$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.02875.7%5 W · 82 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-65.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes3c3,031$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7646521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes3c3,021$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.271,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x713b…f43cbacked Yes1c3,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310536.2%38 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes1c3,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.562412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes2c3,000$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5638811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes4c3,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13036411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes12c2,978$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.0511512.2%14 W · 101 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes8c2,966$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.439923.2%23 W · 76 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+60.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes10c2,965$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.4948819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes6c2,552$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.789711.3%11 W · 86 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-63%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes16c2,421$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.2120735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes9c2,363$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.1231722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b9…7023backed Yes5c2,306$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5722227%60 W · 162 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes8c2,248$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.2538614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8079811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a23…fd22backed Yes2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-63.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes10c1,961$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.2735024%84 W · 266 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes12c1,949$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.0121614.8%32 W · 184 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes9c1,904$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.9512117.4%21 W · 100 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes6c1,881$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2927417.5%48 W · 226 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes9c1,864$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.0657621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes3c1,806$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.945511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdaa…fec8backed Yes11c1,800$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1985529.1%16 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes9c1,781$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.643511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes9c1,766$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.8824815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes9c1,715$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.3476821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e82…77acbacked Yes5c1,622$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5615925.2%40 W · 119 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No80c1,621$1,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.6631565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a43…71afbacked Yes13c1,552$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.631288.6%11 W · 117 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-62.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes3c1,500$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5232110%32 W · 289 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8310…a151backed Yes3c1,440$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes3c1,402$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.589921.2%21 W · 78 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick13cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2807…ce58backed Yes11c1,342$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.231711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-79.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes7c1,320$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2710216.7%17 W · 85 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes7c1,298$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1913713.1%18 W · 119 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+68.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc41f…2a81backed Yes11c1,271$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.172516%4 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-73.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x96f9…0c3bbacked Yes14c1,269$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.952227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes10c1,265$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4499619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3db2…0f2ebacked Yes1c1,200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117731.2%24 W · 53 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick26cpaid0%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f73…b6f9backed Yes13c1,168$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.563844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes14c1,166$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.6120129.4%59 W · 142 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes14c1,142$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.1417628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes24c1,078$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.0220924.9%52 W · 157 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes9c1,075$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0719722.8%45 W · 152 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe397…60b6backed Yes6c1,066$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes11c1,061$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.252116.6%14 W · 197 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes9c1,006$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7763821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes3c999.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3519930.7%61 W · 138 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes8c926.57$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0288017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes11c908.26$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.681,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes6c876$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0629331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes14c873.35$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.8978111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes7c842.08$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6888018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a26…a03bbacked Yes8c835.81$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.084714.9%7 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes22c827.32$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.4610125.7%26 W · 75 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes25c823.73$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.4518321.9%40 W · 143 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb33e…cd0abacked Yes9c808.32$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.212711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes8c805.49$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7243126.2%113 W · 318 L+2.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x10c8…9ddabacked Yes23c787.76$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.691030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-59.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf096…28a8backed Yes15c735.85$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0110530.5%32 W · 73 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick29cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes17c724.42$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4528526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes10c714.07$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9132613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes16c700$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11023819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes9c679.52$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4928016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa152…02a6backed Yes4c670.25$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.622733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4982…fe01backed Yes12c656.38$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2811529.6%34 W · 81 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes9c602.09$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.551656.7%11 W · 154 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4eb9…a2b2backed Yes3c600$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205944.1%26 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde99…8449backed Yes5c594.82$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.51850%9 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc13…c991backed Yes8c594.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2816124.2%39 W · 122 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes6c543.86$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3584616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x035f…33ebbacked Yes8c517.89$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.87407.5%3 W · 37 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes9c514.25$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.281,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes18c510.43$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.817720.9%37 W · 140 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1073…d8babacked Yes19c503.01$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.57742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021233%70 W · 142 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes28c499.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14050913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a84…3788backed Yes16c491.63$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.466823.5%16 W · 52 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Yes6c487.74$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.291931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2749…06edbacked Yes12c433.38$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.967432.4%24 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f4…7518backed Yes8c417.11$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.796930.4%21 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae0d…7df9backed Yes20c405.32$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.841414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes3c400$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.223019.1%44 W · 186 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Yes7c399.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2619020.5%39 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e71…1ffebacked Yes4c397.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabcc…32f6backed Yes12c384.61$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.361656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+61%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes16c378.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.529420.2%19 W · 75 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.