Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x600cbdcab0768a6201986dcbf9b2d6d8acbeb0663955f54d0c5e87cfd14873a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $440,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $351,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $440,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 7c | 19,463$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.25 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,282$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 3c | 8,336$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.68 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 9c | 6,734$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.18 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 3c | 5,546$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.62 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 8c | 4,804$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.85 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 12c | 4,680$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.41 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 2c | 4,632$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.41 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 9c | 3,807$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.09 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…cb18backed Yes | 9c | 3,221$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.76 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf670…3cb8backed Yes | 4c | 3,101$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.14 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Yes | 4c | 3,098$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.02 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 3c | 3,031$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.76 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 3,021$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.27 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 12c | 2,978$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.05 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes | 8c | 2,966$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.43 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 10c | 2,965$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.49 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,552$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.78 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 16c | 2,421$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.21 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 9c | 2,363$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.12 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 5c | 2,306$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.57 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 8c | 2,248$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.25 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 10c | 1,961$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.27 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes | 12c | 1,949$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.01 | 216 | 14.8%32 W · 184 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 9c | 1,904$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.95 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,881$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.29 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 9c | 1,864$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.06 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 3c | 1,806$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…fec8backed Yes | 11c | 1,800$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 9c | 1,781$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.64 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 9c | 1,766$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.88 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,715$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.34 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…77acbacked Yes | 5c | 1,622$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 159 | 25.2%40 W · 119 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 1,621$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.66 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…71afbacked Yes | 13c | 1,552$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.63 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8310…a151backed Yes | 3c | 1,440$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes | 3c | 1,402$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…ce58backed Yes | 11c | 1,342$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.23 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 7c | 1,320$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.27 | 102 | 16.7%17 W · 85 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 7c | 1,298$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.19 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…2a81backed Yes | 11c | 1,271$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.17 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…0c3bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,269$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.95 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 1,265$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.44 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…0f2ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b6f9backed Yes | 13c | 1,168$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.56 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 14c | 1,166$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.61 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 14c | 1,142$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.14 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 24c | 1,078$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.02 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc99e…3853backed Yes | 9c | 1,075$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 197 | 22.8%45 W · 152 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…60b6backed Yes | 6c | 1,066$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,061$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.25 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,006$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 3c | 999.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 8c | 926.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 11c | 908.26$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 6c | 876$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 14c | 873.35$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.89 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 7c | 842.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.68 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a26…a03bbacked Yes | 8c | 835.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 22c | 827.32$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.46 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 25c | 823.73$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.45 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb33e…cd0abacked Yes | 9c | 808.32$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 8c | 805.49$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10c8…9ddabacked Yes | 23c | 787.76$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf096…28a8backed Yes | 15c | 735.85$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 105 | 30.5%32 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 17c | 724.42$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.45 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 10c | 714.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 16c | 700$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 9c | 679.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa152…02a6backed Yes | 4c | 670.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…fe01backed Yes | 12c | 656.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes | 9c | 602.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 165 | 6.7%11 W · 154 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…a2b2backed Yes | 3c | 600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde99…8449backed Yes | 5c | 594.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc13…c991backed Yes | 8c | 594.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 161 | 24.2%39 W · 122 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 6c | 543.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 8c | 517.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 514.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes | 18c | 510.43$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 177 | 20.9%37 W · 140 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked Yes | 19c | 503.01$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 28c | 499.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a84…3788backed Yes | 16c | 491.63$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Yes | 6c | 487.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…06edbacked Yes | 12c | 433.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…7518backed Yes | 8c | 417.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae0d…7df9backed Yes | 20c | 405.32$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.84 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Yes | 7c | 399.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 190 | 20.5%39 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e71…1ffebacked Yes | 4c | 397.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…32f6backed Yes | 12c | 384.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Yes | 16c | 378.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 94 | 20.2%19 W · 75 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.