Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bc5ede349549b71926d8ea8e5ad573713c81597f74b42b99e07f369e53c0f03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $407,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $353,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $407,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 320 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 9c | 52,549$4,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,588.93 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 28c | 14,665$4,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,115.17 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 6c | 10,072$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.94 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5808…0b74backed Yes | 44c | 9,803$4,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,338.74 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 27c | 8,752$2,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,388.08 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed No | 65c | 7,489$4,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,612.94 | 108 | 24.1%26 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 11c | 5,010$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.68 | 138 | 17.4%24 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 19c | 4,067$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.22 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes | 34c | 3,674$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.79 | 216 | 14.8%32 W · 184 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 34c | 3,382$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.98 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 20c | 3,372$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.87 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 26c | 3,359$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.01 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 36c | 3,349$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.93 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 56c | 3,238$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.94 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 9c | 3,186$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.21 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 15c | 2,943$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.57 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 38c | 2,831$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.04 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 23c | 2,776$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.61 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 20c | 2,567$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.3 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 66c | 2,337$1,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.11 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 10c | 2,336$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.77 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 61c | 2,287$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.97 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 24c | 2,202$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.89 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked No | 58c | 2,201$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.36 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 9c | 2,176$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.58 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 66c | 2,161$1,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.77 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed No | 64c | 2,031$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.02 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 31c | 1,939$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.83 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 65c | 1,835$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.44 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 1,821$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.04 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 32c | 1,779$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.22 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 1,673$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.45 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…b4d5backed Yes | 2c | 1,447$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 90 | 36.7%33 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed Yes | 27c | 1,393$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.75 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 22c | 1,392$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.53 | 117 | 25.6%30 W · 87 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 31c | 1,253$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.07 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed Yes | 41c | 1,200$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 7c | 1,187$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 70c | 1,178$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.28 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,165$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.92 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 62c | 1,154$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.52 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 68c | 1,138$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.01 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af8…f71dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,090$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…cb18backed No | 58c | 1,086$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.95 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…c7a9backed Yes | 38c | 1,054$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…6994backed No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed No | 60c | 986.73$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.22 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…bedebacked Yes | 5c | 975$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746a…41e9backed Yes | 20c | 969$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e78backed No | 67c | 927.51$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.08 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…8d02backed Yes | 34c | 900$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 13c | 894.12$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.65 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 11c | 890.18$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…1af9backed Yes | 32c | 873.72$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.6 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 33c | 865.35$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.64 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…c25bbacked Yes | 2c | 864.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 37c | 853.25$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.93 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 25c | 831.68$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.31 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 6c | 800$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc819…8c33backed Yes | 20c | 800$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…6a21backed Yes | 40c | 796.66$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.66 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 13c | 767.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.83 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 7c | 748.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes | 25c | 714.61$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.25 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes | 5c | 700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 19c | 686.36$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.27 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 23c | 685.22$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.89 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…3a33backed Yes | 45c | 641.24$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.43 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fd…59a9backed Yes | 36c | 638.92$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 13c | 637.94$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.07 | 174 | 34.5%60 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…be66backed No | 74c | 632.51$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.45 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…20d4backed No | 76c | 601.1$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.33 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 4c | 600$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 104 | 22.1%23 W · 81 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b7…227bbacked Yes | 31c | 593.9$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.27 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 48c | 589.99$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.46 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 24c | 585.51$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.85 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 579.29$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.86 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…85adbacked No | 74c | 553.56$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.2 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10c8…9ddabacked No | 70c | 553.29$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.23 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d7…59c1backed Yes | 19c | 537.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.87 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ba…bf76backed Yes | 13c | 535.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +200.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 512.54$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 27c | 512.31$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.06 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes | 13c | 510.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 39c | 501.23$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.92 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a0…5963backed Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfe…6222backed Yes | 12c | 499.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48db…b26ebacked Yes | 42c | 489.26$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.49 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes | 32c | 457.31$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.58 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 75c | 453.84$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.56 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 18c | 453.12$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…0ed2backed No | 68c | 445$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.4 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 24c | 441.82$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.59 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 13c | 422.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a84…3788backed Yes | 31c | 421.29$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.84 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…71afbacked Yes | 26c | 412.01$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 21c | 410.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…f80dbacked No | 61c | 399.99$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.99 | 186 | 31.7%59 W · 127 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.