Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b49b9296e1d3115ce93418757417ccac9478aa2343ee08050362d9472ddd845
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $317,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $209,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $317,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 1c | 24,594$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.32 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 0c | 23,337$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 22,907$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.4 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 0c | 21,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 1c | 17,739$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.69 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…e3f8backed Yes | 1c | 6,595$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 5,054$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 2c | 3,851$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.9 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 1c | 3,450$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes | 4c | 3,040$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.28 | 216 | 14.8%32 W · 184 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 12c | 2,991$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.27 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…ecdfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,590$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes | 1c | 2,558$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,385$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 5c | 2,191$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.84 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,092$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…65ecbacked Yes | 2c | 1,934$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 1c | 1,752$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,659$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 2c | 1,653$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 2c | 1,641$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 1c | 1,440$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 5c | 1,296$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,245$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 109 | 17.4%19 W · 90 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 3c | 1,140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Yes | 2c | 1,139$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 3c | 1,050$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 1,003$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 994.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 994.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes | 6c | 986.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 68 | 8.8%6 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 12c | 984.71$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.37 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 2c | 974.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…9ad6backed Yes | 9c | 939.94$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 5c | 927.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…fec8backed Yes | 2c | 926.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 2c | 916.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…71afbacked Yes | 5c | 916.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…ce58backed Yes | 4c | 901.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 897.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 1c | 872.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…fa88backed Yes | 13c | 773.54$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.57 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 4c | 755.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…7010backed Yes | 2c | 749.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1626…9992backed Yes | 13c | 702.31$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…fe01backed Yes | 2c | 687.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 2c | 684.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d7…59c1backed Yes | 13c | 622.15$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.88 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes | 12c | 586.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 124 | 16.9%21 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 14c | 457$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 2c | 445.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 118 | 9.3%11 W · 107 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x960b…9303backed Yes | 3c | 416.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…be55backed Yes | 12c | 379.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes | 5c | 370.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 177 | 20.9%37 W · 140 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…9ac8backed Yes | 8c | 345.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 121 | 24%29 W · 92 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa5…e581backed Yes | 7c | 303$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e99…72a0backed Yes | 9c | 193.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 145 | 7.6%11 W · 134 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes | 8c | 181.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 301 | 10.3%31 W · 270 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 9c | 149.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 72 | 15.3%11 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…6be6backed Yes | 14c | 130.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5537…97cfbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.