Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6df411a93f054b2b80fc4686c014de529f56bd0f6e659ef42c4f8b396ab6b303
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $235,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $240,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $235,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed No | 1c | 8,000$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 2c | 7,777$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.54 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x064b…eae5backed No | 10c | 7,633$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.67 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6aa…132abacked No | 0c | 6,599$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +57%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 18c | 6,588$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.48 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked No | 1c | 6,000$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 21c | 3,206$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.27 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked No | 3c | 3,194$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…9f50backed Yes | 50c | 3,016$1,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed Yes | 75c | 3,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 20c | 2,972$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.73 | 124 | 9.7%12 W · 112 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 72c | 2,762$1,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.19 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed No | 10c | 2,696$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.88 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 18c | 2,649$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.45 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed No | 13c | 2,557$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.63 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…6994backed No | 10c | 2,505$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.4 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…2266backed Yes | 47c | 2,327$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.34 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 9c | 2,254$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.89 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 4c | 2,045$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.01 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 4c | 2,000$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 2c | 1,997$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 16c | 1,709$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.86 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13d…a958backed No | 6c | 1,678$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.37 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes | 70c | 1,619$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.47 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 10c | 1,520$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.14 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 7c | 1,475$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…385cbacked No | 1c | 1,418$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…1b38backed Yes | 46c | 1,281$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.32 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 14c | 1,212$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.51 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed No | 9c | 1,149$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.28 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec9…5f0dbacked No | 6c | 1,092$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -91%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes | 50c | 1,012$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.7 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b4…3cf1backed No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…55cabacked No | 2c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 18c | 925.37$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.56 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 22c | 889.61$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.81 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 32c | 839.39$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.88 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 7c | 833.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked No | 2c | 800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 12c | 774.58$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.17 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 20c | 774$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.72 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…86aebacked Yes | 72c | 769.66$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.43 | 139 | 11.5%16 W · 123 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e69…f525backed Yes | 61c | 760$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…c441backed Yes | 62c | 757.15$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.78 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 19c | 741.96$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.19 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed No | 34c | 741.63$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.32 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…38afbacked No | 5c | 705.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 128 | 25.8%33 W · 95 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…8d02backed No | 28c | 700$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…af41backed Yes | 47c | 694.51$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.51 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed No | 17c | 692.76$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.64 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 11c | 691.04$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes | 69c | 689.34$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.05 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 42c | 666.68$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.95 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 73c | 653.46$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.84 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 27c | 653$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.91 | 218 | 57.8%126 W · 92 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 23c | 632.28$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.24 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 9c | 627.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92bc…06bfbacked No | 57c | 617.29$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.51 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 44c | 602.45$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.99 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed No | 9c | 599.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes | 46c | 593.61$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.12 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0555…59d2backed Yes | 61c | 573$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20d…d518backed No | 45c | 554.36$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.46 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b54…2d32backed Yes | 60c | 550.72$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.72 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe183…3e16backed No | 19c | 538.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…0d7dbacked Yes | 48c | 523.45$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.45 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +103%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…9e28backed Yes | 45c | 506.82$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.75 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 48c | 497$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.46 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…aa71backed No | 10c | 494.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked No | 55c | 470$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.5 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked No | 9c | 443.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34d…5461backed Yes | 20c | 424$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.26 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked No | 10c | 417.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 25c | 417$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.79 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…ebd9backed No | 8c | 416.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…60aabacked Yes | 73c | 410.28$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.28 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Yes | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf33a…1e9fbacked No | 5c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 99 | 26.3%26 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 62c | 400$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x790e…989bbacked Yes | 67c | 395$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.93 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3f…4590backed Yes | 77c | 392.26$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes | 80c | 367.5$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed Yes | 55c | 364.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.65 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed No | 43c | 359$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 29c | 345.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 48c | 323.35$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.28 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 67c | 321.18$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 6c | 319.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed No | 8c | 317.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 71c | 312.83$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 9c | 303.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 4c | 302.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 118 | 9.3%11 W · 107 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 49c | 300.21$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.59 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c33…f910backed Yes | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed No | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd53…8dd1backed No | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 24c | 295.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…3bc2backed No | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 54c | 257$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.22 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af1…af5bbacked No | 10c | 256.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.