Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce122180163e397939a0be7d7132993d84303c115418d0cdc52186227f33b72b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $340,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $294,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $340,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 1c | 34,927$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.32 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 2c | 26,119$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.02 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 11c | 9,937$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.57 | 1,799 | 7.4%133 W · 1,666 L | -24.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed Yes | 1c | 9,092$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 8c | 7,777$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.16 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,548$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 15c | 5,587$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.16 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed Yes | 14c | 5,369$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.93 | 181 | 30.9%56 W · 125 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 809 | 11.1%90 W · 719 L | +29.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb5…3f64backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8829…cfcfbacked Yes | 1c | 4,383$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…385cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…2917backed Yes | 13c | 3,943$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.19 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…9f50backed Yes | 30c | 3,010$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d69…e597backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 368 | 10.9%40 W · 328 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404d…b129backed Yes | 12c | 2,960$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.22 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 12c | 2,956$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.67 | 167 | 26.9%45 W · 122 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,805$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.45 | 652 | 21.5%140 W · 512 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes | 11c | 2,599$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…9dbdbacked Yes | 14c | 2,498$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 4c | 2,404$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.58 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,314$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.84 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…2266backed Yes | 31c | 2,296$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.64 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 8c | 2,276$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.95 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 15c | 2,272$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.94 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 8c | 2,248$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.09 | 218 | 22%48 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed Yes | 10c | 2,164$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.75 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 7c | 2,153$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.3 | 1,083 | 8.2%89 W · 994 L | +28.5wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,060$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.6 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,052$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.02 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 15c | 1,958$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.79 | 350 | 25.7%90 W · 260 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 10c | 1,879$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.27 | 894 | 18.7%167 W · 727 L | +10.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,781$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.17 | 1,035 | 10.5%109 W · 926 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 4c | 1,750$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 436 | 19.3%84 W · 352 L | +24.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 18c | 1,632$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.95 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 628 | 12.3%77 W · 551 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 194 | 24.7%48 W · 146 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,359$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 463 | 8.2%38 W · 425 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e69…f525backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 6c | 1,268$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 4c | 1,209$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb061…7486backed Yes | 1c | 1,167$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…77acbacked Yes | 8c | 1,122$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.25 | 159 | 25.2%40 W · 119 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,007$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.72 | 423 | 19.4%82 W · 341 L | -19.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 281 | 16.4%46 W · 235 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 411 | 23.1%95 W · 316 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 10c | 986.6$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.97 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 11c | 964.79$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 355 | 23.9%85 W · 270 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 14c | 958$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.12 | 456 | 11.6%53 W · 403 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 11c | 926.81$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.93 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 16c | 876.9$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.49 | 1,062 | 13.7%145 W · 917 L | +38.5wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 5c | 820$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 259 | 11.2%29 W · 230 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked Yes | 7c | 792.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 159 | 44.7%71 W · 88 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 13c | 751.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 468 | 21.2%99 W · 369 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 14c | 747.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.94 | 232 | 19%44 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc92e…2d75backed Yes | 12c | 733.01$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.17 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…8fcebacked Yes | 14c | 720$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 11c | 717.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 590 | 20.8%123 W · 467 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 18c | 711.23$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b9…0d39backed Yes | 17c | 699.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 108 | 20.4%22 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 10c | 689.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 153 | 27.5%42 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 33c | 680.83$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.52 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 11c | 647.68$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…0ce1backed Yes | 33c | 603.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.73 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 3c | 580.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 4c | 560$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 126 | 21.4%27 W · 99 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…ca63backed Yes | 6c | 550$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…af41backed Yes | 13c | 538.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed Yes | 20c | 511.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…dbd4backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92d…a225backed Yes | 15c | 498.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 233 | 8.2%19 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f9…ecdcbacked No | 70c | 482.54$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed Yes | 14c | 453.73$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad10…b35cbacked Yes | 14c | 451.29$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 31c | 450.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.81 | 332 | 21.7%72 W · 260 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…9eaabacked Yes | 3c | 425$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 8c | 402$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 258 | 17.1%44 W · 214 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 20c | 400$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 489 | 19.4%95 W · 394 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 7c | 399.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 328 | 43.3%142 W · 186 L | +28.5wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 24c | 393.12$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.62 | 712 | 16.7%119 W · 593 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 17c | 370.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 13c | 361.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…7803backed Yes | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 7c | 342.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 280 | 23.9%67 W · 213 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f87…f270backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 15c | 300$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c33…f910backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0383…7eefbacked Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 264 | 15.2%40 W · 224 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 16c | 287.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 156 | 31.4%49 W · 107 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…643fbacked Yes | 7c | 279.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 5c | 268.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 262.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 2,576 | 13.2%339 W · 2,237 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 258.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 249 | 24.9%62 W · 187 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 9c | 240$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.