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Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$340,735
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$294,175

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $340,735 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes1c34,927$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.324816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes2c26,119$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.0263414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes11c9,937$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.571,7997.4%133 W · 1,666 L-24.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4355…c5d4backed Yes1c9,092$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.185113.7%7 W · 44 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-62.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes8c7,777$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.1629331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes1c7,548$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6462713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes15c5,587$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.1615236.2%55 W · 97 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes14c5,369$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.9318130.9%56 W · 125 L-0.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes2c5,000$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.380911.1%90 W · 719 L+29.7wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfb5…3f64backed Yes1c5,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26510%0 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8829…cfcfbacked Yes1c4,383$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.981435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1da4…385cbacked Yes1c4,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-72.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7871…2917backed Yes13c3,943$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.1910829.6%32 W · 76 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fb7…9f50backed Yes30c3,010$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.61040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d69…e597backed Yes1c3,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-58.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes2c3,000$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6936810.9%40 W · 328 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x404d…b129backed Yes12c2,960$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.221330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes12c2,956$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.6716726.9%45 W · 122 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-15.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes12c2,805$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.4565221.5%140 W · 512 L+1.6wins0.00per pick21cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes11c2,599$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2988219.5%16 W · 66 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x365f…9dbdbacked Yes14c2,498$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes4c2,404$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5866222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes15c2,314$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.845930.5%18 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdea3…2266backed Yes31c2,296$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.642138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes8c2,276$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.955628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes15c2,272$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.9438828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes8c2,248$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.0921822%48 W · 170 L+0.6wins0.00per pick22cpaid-39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eed…2050backed Yes10c2,164$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.7510629.2%31 W · 75 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes7c2,153$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.31,0838.2%89 W · 994 L+28.5wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-29.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes10c2,060$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.623819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes9c2,052$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.0213844.2%61 W · 77 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003134.8%15 W · 298 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes15c1,958$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.7935025.7%90 W · 260 L-0.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes10c1,879$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.2789418.7%167 W · 727 L+10.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes12c1,781$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.171,03510.5%109 W · 926 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes4c1,750$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6843619.3%84 W · 352 L+24.1wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+6.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes18c1,632$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.9520129.4%59 W · 142 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes5c1,500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8062812.3%77 W · 551 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes9c1,500$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13119424.7%48 W · 146 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-43.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes5c1,359$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.644638.2%38 W · 425 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e69…f525backed Yes1c1,300$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47f3…e493backed Yes6c1,268$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.879726.8%26 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes4c1,209$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0831722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb061…7486backed Yes1c1,167$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e82…77acbacked Yes8c1,122$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2515925.2%40 W · 119 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes11c1,007$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7242319.4%82 W · 341 L-19.5wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-52.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes6c1,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5528116.4%46 W · 235 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes8c1,000$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8441123.1%95 W · 316 L-0.5wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes10c986.6$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9789417.1%153 W · 741 L+0.8wins0.00per pick17cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes11c964.79$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.535523.9%85 W · 270 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes14c958$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.1245611.6%53 W · 403 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes11c926.81$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.931308.5%11 W · 119 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes16c876.9$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.491,06213.7%145 W · 917 L+38.5wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes5c820$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3825911.2%29 W · 230 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked Yes7c792.38$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5815944.7%71 W · 88 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes13c751.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10046821.2%99 W · 369 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes14c747.01$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9423219%44 W · 188 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc92e…2d75backed Yes12c733.01$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.17911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-49.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee76…8fcebacked Yes14c720$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.84517.8%8 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes11c717.74$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9159020.8%123 W · 467 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-28.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes18c711.23$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1305141.2%21 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b9…0d39backed Yes17c699.99$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11710820.4%22 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes10c689.47$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9515327.5%42 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes33c680.83$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.5214137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x555c…c64dbacked Yes11c647.68$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7114332.9%47 W · 96 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e40…0ce1backed Yes33c603.59$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.733225%8 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes3c580.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.911811%13 W · 105 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes4c560$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0812621.4%27 W · 99 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+47.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb556…ca63backed Yes6c550$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.57830.8%24 W · 54 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8fb…af41backed Yes13c538.46$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706839.7%27 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc164…efb9backed Yes20c511.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008337.3%31 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes4c500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3237…dbd4backed Yes14c500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes5c499.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2518722.5%42 W · 145 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes15c498.81$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752338.2%19 W · 214 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67f9…ecdcbacked No70c482.54$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.53450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes14c453.73$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.52937.5%7 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad10…b35cbacked Yes14c451.29$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.72520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-74.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes31c450.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.8133221.7%72 W · 260 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd805…9eaabacked Yes3c425$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.035616.1%9 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bc3…4972backed Yes8c402$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.421242.5%90 W · 122 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes6c400$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2225817.1%44 W · 214 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes20c400$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7848919.4%95 W · 394 L+1.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes7c399.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.232843.3%142 W · 186 L+28.5wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+12.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes24c393.12$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6271216.7%119 W · 593 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes17c370.5$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4628526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94f4…ea54backed Yes13c361.3$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.912828.1%36 W · 92 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7131…7803backed Yes6c350$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes7c342.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.928023.9%67 W · 213 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f87…f270backed Yes31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid-19.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes15c300$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444035%14 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c33…f910backed Yes14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210131.7%32 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10026415.2%40 W · 224 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c75…fd50backed Yes16c287.95$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7215631.4%49 W · 107 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fcc…643fbacked Yes7c279.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209515.8%15 W · 80 L-0.3wins0.00per pick16cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes5c268.28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4119229.2%56 W · 136 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes13c262.37$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.812,57613.2%339 W · 2,237 L+4.4wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes7c258.76$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3824924.9%62 W · 187 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017440.8%71 W · 103 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes9c240$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0513917.3%24 W · 115 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.