Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46925fd06cde65a92fdb82f38c98152c821a6998cbe8a6941b0e1d354e8205e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $276,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $179,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 45,102$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.9 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 1c | 15,077$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.78 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,599$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 1c | 9,088$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.68 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 0c | 8,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 7,589$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 2c | 4,969$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.96 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,477$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92d…a225backed Yes | 4c | 4,390$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.99 | 233 | 8.2%19 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 0c | 4,155$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 3,366$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…055ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,881$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…fb07backed Yes | 1c | 2,525$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,431$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…dbd4backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 6c | 1,971$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 8c | 1,903$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.02 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,509$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 1,494$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.78 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 3c | 1,353$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…748fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,307$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.53 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x814f…aeecbacked Yes | 6c | 1,247$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 1c | 999.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 2c | 850.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 102 | 16.7%17 W · 85 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…71e5backed Yes | 7c | 713.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked Yes | 2c | 660$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…09afbacked Yes | 9c | 638.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 529.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 6c | 419.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212c…2c1fbacked Yes | 13c | 351.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 8c | 313.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482f…53f7backed Yes | 7c | 280.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e99…72a0backed Yes | 7c | 271.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 7.6%11 W · 134 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 9c | 256.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…83cabacked Yes | 13c | 247.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 5c | 236.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 7c | 205$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 400 | 16.8%67 W · 333 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 7c | 204.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 296 | 10.5%31 W · 265 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdadf…8034backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeec6…4558backed Yes | 9c | 185.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 14c | 162.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb095…aea1backed Yes | 13c | 146.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 15.5%13 W · 71 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f2…0822backed Yes | 11c | 108.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe924…e6a7backed Yes | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.