Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55ff3b119313f9e7a2306fa5cfec767e042680f9ec4eef00deb42d39dde69f14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $199,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 12c | 12,660$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.67 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 5c | 7,512$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.65 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 8c | 6,741$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.95 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…2e44backed Yes | 18c | 3,693$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0555…59d2backed Yes | 19c | 3,455$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 7c | 3,029$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.24 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 197 | 31%61 W · 136 L | +13.8wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 4c | 2,854$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.82 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,778$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.18 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 2,513$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.5 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 25c | 2,350$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.7 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 14c | 2,247$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.26 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 15c | 2,242$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.05 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 6c | 2,126$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.57 | 83 | 20.5%17 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea9…e11ebacked Yes | 19c | 2,108$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.28 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…9e28backed Yes | 16c | 1,827$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,600$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.96 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x863b…4f2cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,585$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.51 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 16c | 1,577$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.97 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 79c | 1,478$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.54 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f13…1631backed Yes | 10c | 1,364$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.39 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 21c | 1,329$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.87 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 1,190$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.36 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,108$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.01 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 15c | 1,081$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.56 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 76c | 1,068$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.86 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…3a33backed Yes | 19c | 970.47$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.39 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed No | 76c | 956.71$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.54 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29e7…fbbfbacked Yes | 7c | 954.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 19c | 951.39$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.25 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes | 18c | 942.65$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.68 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 14c | 937.11$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.62 | 124 | 9.7%12 W · 112 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 6c | 931.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b19…ca35backed Yes | 5c | 899.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…00f7backed Yes | 17c | 897.43$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.54 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +57%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 6c | 869$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb19…9a2abacked Yes | 8c | 842.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 4c | 785$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 10c | 783.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.49 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 24c | 766.44$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.47 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…af41backed Yes | 16c | 766.1$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…2da7backed Yes | 9c | 742.11$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e69…f525backed Yes | 21c | 711.94$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked No | 72c | 689.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.93 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes | 12c | 670.74$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…0d7dbacked Yes | 10c | 670.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +103%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 12c | 630.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fe…6791backed Yes | 8c | 630$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed Yes | 13c | 615.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd59c…cc11backed Yes | 15c | 608.45$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f4…b3fbbacked Yes | 17c | 605.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd287…eaddbacked No | 74c | 601.19$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes | 4c | 600$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 182 | 18.7%34 W · 148 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 14c | 583.94$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.61 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf29a…bcbdbacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 18c | 553.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 216 | 6%13 W · 203 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 18c | 550$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 6c | 548.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…3e6fbacked Yes | 22c | 521.15$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.48 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 106 | 17%18 W · 88 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b9…0d39backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 20.4%22 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes | 21c | 500$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 124 | 16.9%21 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 11c | 499.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 22c | 498$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 156 | 31.4%49 W · 107 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 11c | 494.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 11c | 468.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 22c | 457.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa471…8b84backed Yes | 10c | 454$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Yes | 19c | 440.08$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 178 | 24.7%44 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…6994backed Yes | 15c | 437.6$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f87…f270backed Yes | 12c | 434.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 77c | 426$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb936…a6a6backed Yes | 16c | 404.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 16c | 403.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4473…28adbacked Yes | 12c | 400.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 184 | 19%35 W · 149 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d5…17bebacked Yes | 23c | 387.94$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5891…b5eebacked Yes | 3c | 377.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…0b46backed Yes | 17c | 354.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92bc…06bfbacked Yes | 23c | 350.45$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 11c | 345.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…1300backed Yes | 12c | 342.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 16c | 335$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 16c | 320.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 112 | 24.1%27 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…e9bfbacked No | 76c | 311$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.08 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 19c | 303.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…3978backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 199 | 25.1%50 W · 149 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed Yes | 15c | 298.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 19c | 277.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 14c | 270.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 281 | 11%31 W · 250 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 21c | 260.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…8ae1backed No | 76c | 259$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 6c | 255$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523b…4fe0backed Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…0ce1backed Yes | 21c | 244$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12a8…2111backed Yes | 29c | 243.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.